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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home pricesas measured by the Zillow Home Value Indexwill rise +1.2% between August 2025 and August 2026. Heading into 2025, Zillows 12-month forecast for U.S. home prices was +2.6%. However, many housing markets across the country softened faster than expected, prompting Zillow to issue several downward revisions. By April 2025, Zillow had cut its 12-month national home price outlook to -1.7%. However, in recent months, Zillow has stopped issuing downward revisions. In August, it revised its 12-month outlook to +0.4%. In September, the forecast increased to +1.2%, and now Zillow has upgraded its 12-month national home price forecast to +1.9%. While Zillows national home price forecast is no longer negativeit isnt exactly bullish either. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increase between September 2025 and September 2026 to occur in these 15 metros: Atlantic City, NJ +5.4% Rockford, IL +5.1% Concord, NH %5.1% Knoxville, TN +5.0% Saginaw, MI +4.9% Fayetteville, AR +4.8% Hilton Head Island, SC +4.8% Torrington, CT +4.8% Kingston, NY +4.8% Hartford, CT +4.5% New Haven, CT +4.5% Vineland, NJ +4.5% Jacksonville, NC +4.4% Morristown, TN +4.4% Manchester, NH +4.3% Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price decline between September 2025 and September 2026 to occur in these 15 metros: Houma, LA -7.4% Lake Charles, LA -6.9% Lafayette, LA -4.3% New Orleans, LA -4.0% Shreveport, LA -3.8% Beaumont, TX -3.7% Alexandria, LA -3.4% Odessa, TX -3.3% Corpus Christi, TX -2.4% Monroe, LA -2.1% San Francisco, CA -2.0% Chico, CA -2.0% Punta Gorda, FL -1.9% Austin, TX -1.8% Santa Rosa, CA -1.8% U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +0.01% year over year. If Zillows latest 12-month outlook (+1.9%) comes to fruition, it would represent a small acceleration nationally. Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}(); A year ago, 6 of the nations 50 largest metros were buyers markets; this September, buyers have the edge in 15 metros. Zillows market heat index shows the strongest buyers markets are Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Thats due, in large part, to a surge of new construction in many of those areas in recent years. The hottest markets for sellers are in the Northeast and Bay Area: Buffalo, Hartford, San Jose, San Francisco and New Yorkplaces where builders face some of the most stringent land use restrictions, wrote Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, in a report published on Monday.
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Meta, which owns and operates Facebook and Instagramas well as Threads, Messenger, and WhatsAppannounced on Wednesday it is laying off about 600 employees from its new AI “superintelligence” research lab. The news was first reported by Axios. Fast Company has reached out to Meta for comment. That lab, dedicated to pursuing an artificial intelligence system that would reportedly surpass human intelligence, was announced back in June after Meta said it was investing $14.3 billion in Alexandr Wang’s Scale AI and bringing him on board. The cuts come as Big Tech ramps up its investment in artificial intelligence, pouring billions in an increasingly competitive, high-stakes AI arms race. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says the social technology company plans to invest between $60 billion and $65 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 alone. At the same time, Meta has been rolling out AI advertising features at a dizzying rate, and is also reportedly building a large Manhattan data center to power its AI offerings. “By reducing the size of our team, fewer conversations will be required to make a decision, and each person will be more load-bearing and have more scope and impact,” Meta chief AI officer Alexandr Wang wrote in a memo, Axios reported. Meta financials Shares in Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) took a dip in morning trading on Wednesday, but for the most part recovered, and were trading down 0.4% by midday at the time of this writing. In its second quarter 2025 earnings release, for the period ending on June 30, Zuckerberg wrote, “We’ve had a strong quarter both in terms of our business and community: I’m excited to build personal superintelligence for everyone in the world.” The company beat expectations with revenue coming in at $47.52 billion, versus estimates of $44.80 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $7.14, higher than the expected $5.92. The company’s third quarter 2025 financial results will be released after market close on Wednesday, October 29.
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From July 14 to November 9, 2023, the American actors’ union SAG-AFTRA, representing 160,000 people, went on strike over a labor dispute with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. Eventually, both sides agreed to terms that theoretically would put limits on how actors images and output could be used. Strike over, everybody went back to work and the entertainment industrial complex started humming again. But they apparently never took heed of the lessons offered by a somewhat obscure 2013 movie, The Congress, which eerily anticipated the crisis Hollywood is now facing. Caught by surprise? Really? Fast-forward to September of 2025. Dutch actor and comedian Eline Van der Veldens company Particle6 released an AI “actor” named Tilly Norwood with the express intention of her becoming the next Scarlett Johansson. The bot had its own social media presence, appeared in comedy sketches, and breathlessly declared, “I may be AI, but I’m feeling very real emotions right now. I am so excited for what’s coming next!” The news that there were agents in talks to sign Norwood, the way they might sign a real actor, sparked an incredible Hollywood firestorm. Lots of denunciations of this use of technology. Lots of claims that this was unfair. And lots and lots of workplace anxiety. But should they really have been this surprised? Futurist Amy Webb suggests not. As she says, Lets not kid ourselves: theyve had more than a decade to prepare for this. Toy Story, launched in 1995, was the first full-length feature film to be fully animated, followed by a string of other hits that did very well without real actors, thank you very much. Lara Croft, the Tomb Raider game star that was launched in 1996, became a movie character in 2001. In 2002, a simulated movie star played the lead in the science fiction movie Simone. In 2011, Japanese idol group AKB48 introduced a new memberAimi Eguchi. She became popular and was added to the band only to graduate when her identity as a composite of the bands other actors was revealed. By 2016, we had AI-generated influencers like Lil Miquela who appear in advertisements, garner thousands of followers, and are paid to endorse brands. And the precedent for Tilly signing with an agent has already been establishedMiquela signed on with CAA as its first virtual client as far back as 2020. View this post on Instagram A post shared by Tilly Norwood (@tillynorwood) Willful blind spots Now seemingly caught by surprise, what did the strategists in Hollywood miss? Most likely, too much focus on their own industry. Fractious labor relations, contract negotiations, and changing entertainment consumption behavior can eat up a lot of executive bandwidth. This leads to not thinking in terms of the larger arenas in which competition takes place. The big threat to this business was not other industry players but something coming along that made what they did unnecessary, undesirable, or too expensive. Once an innovation has demonstrated its efficacy, particularly if it is popular and making money for someone, it is almost impossible to put the genie back in its bottle (see: targeted Internet advertising or ride-sharing). It is also no secret that some moviemakers longed to put AI-generated actors in leading roles, even experimenting with bringing some back from the dead. But perhaps the most significant reason I believe they didnt pick up on the weak signals is because they didnt want to. Accepting the idea of digital acting and the creation of digital worlds means accepting the idea that expertise, talent, and painfully acquired skills will become obsolete. Unfortunately, the law of disruptionin which the complicated and difficult becomes easy and the expensive becomes cheapdoesnt really care about your preferences. Preparing for an existential threat What might they have done to prepare? They could have launched small-scale experiments using digital actors to learn about audience acceptance, production workflows, and creative possibilities. They could have allocated resources to dedicated teams exploring new forms of storytelling. With the constraints of physical acting and reality removed, stories could be developed that could be as revolutionary as the movies themselves were when they created new possibilities beyond what could be done on a physical stage. They could have worked with regulators and their unions to establish a glide path for AI in their sector that would be fair with respect to intellectual property. They could have seriously invested in the digital technologies used to create these new forms of entertainment, rather than leaving all this to technology companies such as Netflix. The end of mass market entertainment? Tilly Norwood isn’t the disruptionshe’s the warning shot. The real disruption comes when AI can generate not just actors, but entire films, on demand, personalized to individual viewer preferences, at essentially zero marginal cost. The studios that survive won’t be the ones with the biggest IP libraries or the most prestigious awards. They’ll be the ones who recognize that the fundamental assumptions of their industrythat content is scarce, that talent is human, that stories are fixedare all being systematically dismantled, and come up with new business models that take advantage of the post-inflection point world. The weak signals are there. The question is: who has the appetite to listen?
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