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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Economic forecasting has never been easy, and it becomes even more challenging in the face of unprecedented events like COVID-19 lockdowns and extraordinary levels of fiscal and monetary intervention. This was followed by a rapid cycle of interest rate hikes, adding further complexity. Look no further than the fact that for three consecutive years (2022, 2023, and 2024) economic forecasts at large significantly underestimated mortgage rates. Recently, however, forecasters have fared better. Among the 17 mortgage rate forecasts rounded up by ResiClub heading into 2025, the average prediction was that 30-year fixed mortgage rates would average 6.33% in Q4 2025. At the time we published that roundup, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was sitting at 7.03%. What happened? The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended up averaging 6.23% in Q4 2025. For our 2026 mortgage rate roundup, ResiClub collected 21 mortgage rate forecasts. Some were publicly available, though most were gathered through the ResiClub 2026 Housing Economist Survey, which we fielded in December 2025. Rather than asking only about Q4, we asked respondents to provide their forecast for the full 2026 calendar year. While ResiClub approaches rate forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticismfor example, if the labor market were to unexpectedly weaken, rates could drop more than anticipatedthere is still value in understanding where economic models predict mortgage rates will head. Below are 21 mortgage rate forecasts (sorted from highest to lowest). Hunter Housing Economics: The research firm predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.6% in 2026. Housing economist Brad Hunter told ResiClub: The impending change in leadership at the Fed could lead to easier monetary policy, which could lead to lower mortgage rates, but this is not clear. The extent of the decline and mortgage rates will depend upon factors like bond market inflation expectations and the budget deficit as well as the rate of GDP growth. Capital Economics: Economists at the independent economic research business based in London forecasts that the 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate will average 6.5% in Q4 2026. Mortgage Bankers Association: The latest forecast published by the trade group has the 30-year fixed mortgage averaging 6.4% in 2026. PNC Bank: Economists at the American bank forecasts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.4% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027. Compass: Mike Simonsen, the chief economist of Compass, forecasts an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.30% in 2026. Realtor.com: Economists at the real estate listing site forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.30% in 2026, including 6.3% in Q4, writing: The mortgage rate lock-in effectcaused by market rates that are well above the rates on existing mortgageshas left many homeowners with a strong reason to stay put. In fact, recent data showed that 4 out of every 5 homeowners with a mortgage has a rate below 6%. The share has waned gradually, a trend that will continue in 2026. As a result, turnover will be limited with moves likely to be spurred by life necessities such as job or family changes. Redfin: Economists at the residential real estate brokerage are predicting an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.3% in 2026, writing: A weaker labor market will lead the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026 and bring monetary policy to a more neutral place, which should keep mortgage rates in the low-6% range. But lingering inflation risk and the likelihood that well avoid a recession will keep the Fed from cutting more than the markets have already priced in. Thats why rates may dip below 6% occasionally, but not for any meaningful period. The Fed will change leadership in 2026, but that is also unlikely to bring significantly lower mortgage rates, as long term rateslike mortgage ratesare set by bond markets. Windermere Real Estate: The economics team at Windermere Real Estate forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.25% in 2026. Moodys: The forecast by Moodys chief economist Mark Zandi has the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.23% in 2026and 6.22% in Q4. Cotality: Economists at the real estate analytics giant are predicting an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.2% in 2026. Selma Hepp, Cotality chief economist, tells ResiClub: The 2026 outlook points toward a return to more typical market conditions, with mortgage rates expected to settle near 6%, home prices increasing gradually by about 2% to 4%, and improvements in both affordability and availability of home for sale. Even so, continuing hurdles like higher non-mortgage expenses, including surging insurance costs and rising property tax bills, limited affordability, and uneven regional trends will keep bifurcating the market and impact decisions of both buyers and sellers. Yale School of Management: Finance professor Cameron LaPoint forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.2% in 2026and 6.05% in Q4. Wells Fargo: Analysts at the bank forecast 30-year fixed mortgage rate averages of 6.18% in 2026 (and 6.2% in Q4). Looking even further ahead, theyre forecasting a 6.25% average in 2027. National Association of Home Builders: Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB, forecasts an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.17% in 2026. Bright MLS: Economists at the firm expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.15% in Q4 2026. Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant writes: Lower rates will improve affordability and bring more buyers into the market in 2026. Mortgage rates began falling at the end of the third quarter of 2025. With additional Federal Reserve rate cuts planned for 2026, a response to weakening economic conditions, expect mortgage rates to fall from about 6.25% at the beginning of 2026 to 6.15% by the end of 2026. Zonda: Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.10% in 2026. Reventure App: Founder Nick Gerli tells ResiClub he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.1% in 2026. National Association of Realtors: The economics team at the trade group forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6% in 2026. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun writes: As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better. . . . Its not going to be a big [mortgage rate] decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability. Miami Realtors: Economists at the groupwhich represents more than 60,000 real estate professionals and is the largest local Realtor association in the U.S.forecast the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6% in 2026, and 6.2% in Q4. Gay Cororaton, chief economist of Miami Realtors, tells ResiClub: With the Fed carefully balancing to achieve its dual mandate, inflation is likely to adjust downward to 2% slowly while the unemployment rate will edge up lightly or remain stable as the Fed avoids a hard landing. The only way for inflation to adjust quickly is if unemployment rises sharply as well to effect a decline in real wages. Either the Fed [is] still caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, I expect mortgage rates to essentially just move sideways, so sales and prices will also post very modest single-digit increases. Affordability will slightly improve but I dont see prices falling significantly despite the modest demand because sellers will also pull back to preserve their home equity gains. With home affordability still the biggest challenge for homebuyers, the upper price tier or the market will continue to be the most active segment. Fannie Mae: The latest forecast issued by Fannie Mae in December has the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6% in 2026 and 5.9% in 2027. Morgan Stanley: Strategists at the investment bank forecast the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will finish 2026 at 5.75%. In a report published on November 19, 2025, Morgan Stanley analysts write: As we gaze into our proverbial crystal ball for the year ahead, we see affordability improving at the margins as mortgage rates dip below 6%. That should provide a modest boost to both existing and new home sales, though we think there is more upside in 2027 than 2026. . . . The modest rally in the primary rate we expect to 5.75% will likely bring some new borrowers into the money, but the impact would be marginal: Only about 6% of conventional borrowers would benefit from that 50bp decline. Beyond that, the next 100bp drop would only add another 8% of borrowers. Meaningful refinance incentives dont emerge until rates fall below 4%, leaving the market in what we call a refi wasteland for much of 2026though we’ll note that just because we’re in a refi wasteland doesn’t mean mortgages in-the-money won’t see valuation challenges driven by shorter lags and increasing originator efficiency. Erdmann Housing Tracker: Housing analyst Kevin Erdmann tells ResiClub he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 5.75% in 2026and finish 2026 at 5.22%. Topline finding? Among the 21 mortgage rate forecasts tracked by ResiClub, the average prediction is 6.18% for calendar year 2026. Thats on par with the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (6.09%). Among the 21 mortgage rate forcasts for 2026 tracked by ResiClub, the highest is 6.6% (Hunter Housing Economics), while the lowest is 5.75% (Morgan Stanley and Erdmann Housing Tracker). Over the past three years, turnover in the U.S. existing-home market has been constrained. Some of that reflects pulled-forward sales that occurred in 2020, 2021, or early 2022 rather than in 2023, 2024, or 2025. But much of the slowdown stems from affordability and the lock-in effect created by the rate shock and sharply higher switching costs: Many homeowners who would like to sell and move are either unwilling to take on a much higher monthly payment or unable to qualify for one. All else being equal, if mortgage rates were to fall more than expected, there would be slightly more turnover and sales in the existing home market. Lets say theyre wrong and mortgage rates fall more than expected. What happens? Theres a potential wildcardan economic slowdown. If joblessness were to climb faster than anticipated or if the economy were to meaningfully deteriorate, that could put additional downward pressure on both Treasury yields and mortgage rates. In that scenario, mortgage rates could dip more than the baseline forecasts suggest. The mortgage spread represents the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. This week, the spread stood at 207 basis points. If the spreadwhich widened when mortgage rates spiked in 2022continues to compress/normalize toward its long-term average since 1972 (176 basis points), it could help push mortgage rates lower even if Treasury yields hold steady. Housing stakeholders should keep in mind that a mortgage rate forecast is not a firms projection for the highestor lowestrate in the coming year. Rather, it reflects the average rate for the calendar year. And, of course, in any given year the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate can move well above and well below that annual average. A recent ResiClub analysis of Freddie Macs weekly mortgage-rate dataset finds that since 1972, the average annual range in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 1.4 percentage points. If you move the goalpost to just this centurysince 2001the average annual range in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 1.08 percentage points. In 2025, the range was 0.87 point. One last thought: Mortgage rate forecasts should always be taken with a grain of saltat least to some degree. Predicting long-term yields depends on accurately anticipating inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the broader trajectory of the U.S. and global economies, all of which are notoriously hard to get right. Over just the past five years, forecasters have been caught off guard by a pandemic, a historic inflation spike, and one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in modern history. The lesson? Even the best models cant account for every shock. Mortgage rate forecasts are useful guidepostsbut not guarantees.
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Heres the sad truth about sports score apps: Most of them arent all that interested in actually telling you the score. After all, wheres the money in providing straightforward information like that? The modern sports score app has to do more. It must bombard you with banner ads and betting odds, implore you to create an account and opt into notifications, sell you some tickets, and show some videos to keep engagement up. The scores themselves are an afterthought. Fortunately, theres an alternative that tells you the outcomes of every major sporting event without distractions. And the same sort of resources are available to bring minimalist magic to your news, weather, and even navigation, tooif you know where to look. This tip originally appeared in the free Cool Tools newsletter from The Intelligence. Get the next issue in your inbox and get ready to discover all sorts of awesome tech treasures! Useful info, without the filler First things first: For a simpler way to look up sports scores, just head to PlainTextSports.com in any web browser. Plain Text Sports is a website that lists out sports scores using only letters, numbers, and characters. The site loads pretty much instantly, and scanning the scores takes a few fast seconds. Its free, toowith no ads, logins, or subscriptions. The Plain Text Sports interface really is as plain as can be. After using an app like ESPN or TheScore, Plain Text Sports bare-bones appearance can take some getting used tobut youll quickly realize how much information is packed onto the homepage. For each league, you can click through to the schedule, standings, and team pages. Clicking on a game brings up detailed statistics and play-by-play details. Because this is a website, each league, team, and standings page also has its own URL. That means you can easily bookmark the ones you care about and skip the default home screen. Theres also a handy dark mode toggle at the top of the page. You’ll see all the pertinent info without any of the usual distractions. While Plain Text Sports does not have a dedicated mobile app, you can always add the site as a home screen icon. The site even provides a page with instructions for iOS and Android. The only notable downside with Plain Text Sports is its lack of highlight videos. Those would obviously be against the sites ethos, but if it could find a way to link to the latest clips from a site like ESPN or YouTube, itd be pretty much unbeatable. More plain-text resources Once you start getting your sports scores this way, you may find yourself hooked on the plain-text lifestyle. Here are some other resources that convey information in a similar way: 68k.news: Headlines in plain text. text.npr.org: NPRs list of headlines, which lead to text-only versions of each article. lite.cnn.com: Similar to the above, but for CNN. wttr.in: Your local weather forecast, rendered in ASCII symbols. (Fine-tune the forecast with these URL modifications.) gdir.telae.net: Text-based Google Maps directions, the way they used to be. This, suffice it to say, isn’t your average weather website. It doesnt get much simpler than that. Plain Text Sports is a website that works in any browser (as are all the other resources mentioned above). Its free to access, with no ads, subscriptions, or usage limits. (The same is mostly true for the other sites, too, though some do have ads.) The site doesnt track your individual usage or require any sort of personal data. Treat yourself to all sorts of brain-boosting goodies like this with the free Cool Tools newsletterstarting with an instant introduction to an incredible audio app thatll tune up your days in truly delightful ways.
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In announcing its Great Healthcare Plan in January 2026, the Trump administration became the latest in a long history of efforts by the U.S. government to rein in the soaring cost of healthcare. As a physician and professor studying the intersection of business and health, I know that the challenges in reforming the sprawling U.S. healthcare system are immense. Thats partly for political and even philosophical reasons. But it also reflects a complex system fraught with competing interestsand the fact that patients, hospitals, health insurance companies, and drug manufacturers change their behaviors in conflicting ways when faced with new rules. Soaring costs U.S. healthcare is the most expensive in the world, and according to a poll published in late January 2026, two-thirds of Americans are very worried about their ability to pay for itwhether its their medications, a doctors visit, health insurance or an unpredictably costly medical emergency. Disputes over health policy even played a central role in the federal government shutdown in fall 2025. Trumps healthcare framework outlines no specific policy actions, but it does establish priorities to address a number of longtime concerns, including prescription drug costs, price transparency, lowering insurance premiums, and making health insurance companies generally more accountable. Why have these challenges been so difficult to address? Drug price sticker shock Prescription drug costs in the U.S. began rising sharply in the 1980s, when drugmakers increased the development of innovative new treatments for common diseases. But efforts to combat this trend have resembled a game of whack-a-mole because the factors driving it are so intertwined. One issue is the unique set of challenges that define drug development. As with any consumer good, manufacturers price prescription drugs to cover costs and earn profits. Drug manufacturing, however, involves an expensive and time-consuming development process with a high risk of failure. Patent protection is another issue. Drug patents last 20 years, but completing costly trials necessary for regulatory approval takes up much of that period, reducing the time when manufacturers have exclusive rights to sell the drug. After a patent expires, generic versions can be made and sold for significantly less, lowering the profits for the original manufacturer. Though some data challenges this claim, the pharmaceutical industry contends that high prices while drugs are under patent help companies recover their investment, which then funds the discovery of new drugs. And they often find ways to extend their patents, which keeps prices elevated for longer. Then there are the intermediaries. Once a drug is on the market, prices are typically set through negotiations with administrators called pharmacy benefit managers, who negotiate discounts and rebates on prescription drugs for health insurers and employers offering benefits to their workers. Pharmacy benefit managers are paid based on those discounts, so they do not have an incentive to lower total drug prices, though new transparency rules enacted February 3 aim to change payment practices. Drugmakers often raise the list price of drugs to make up for the markdowns that pharmacy benefit managers negotiateand possibly even more than that. In many countries, centralized government negotiators set the price for prescription drugs, resulting in lower drug prices. This has prompted American officials to consider using those prices as a reference for setting drug prices here. In its blueprint, the Trump administration has called for a most-favored nation drug pricing policy, under which some U.S. drug prices would match the lowest prices paid in other countries. This may work in the short term, but manufacturers say it could also curtail investment in innovative new drugs. And some industry experts worry that it may push manufacturers to raise international prices. Policy experts have questioned whether TrumpRx will bring down drug prices. In late 2025, 16 parmaceutical companies agreed to most-favored nation pricing for some drugs. Consumers can now buy them directly from manufacturers through TrumpRx, a portal that points consumers to drug manufacturers and provides coupons for purchasing more than 40 widely used brand-name drugs at a discount, which launched February 5. However, many drugs available through the platform can be purchased at lower prices as generics Increasing price transparency Fewer than 1 in 20 Americans know how much healthcare services will cost before they receive them. One fix for this seems obvious: Make providers list their prices up front. That way, consumers could compare prices and choose the most cost-effective options for their care. Spurred by bipartisan support in Congress, the government has embraced price transparency for healthcare services over the past decade. In February 2025, the Trump administration announced stricter enforcement for hospitals, which must now post actual prices, rather than estimates, for common medical procedures. Data is mixed on whether the approach is working as planned, however. Hospitals have reduced prices for people paying out of pocket, but not for those paying with insurance, according to a 2025 study. For one thing, when regulations change, companies make strategic decisions to achieve their financial goals and meet the new rulessometimes yielding unintended consequences. One study found, for example, that price transparency regulations in a series of clinics led to an increase in physician charges to insurance companies because some providers who had been charging less raised their prices to match more expensive competitors. Additionally, a 2024 federal government study found that 46% of hospitals were not compliant. The American Hospital Association, a trade group, suggested price transparency imposes a high administrative burden on hospitals while providing confusing information to patients, whose costs may vary depending on unique aspects of their conditions. And the fine for noncompliance, $300 per day, may be insufficient to offset the cost of disclosing this information, according to some health policy experts. Beyond high costs, patients also worry that insurers wont actually cover the care they receive. Cigna is currently fighting a lawsuit accusing its doctors of denying claims almost instantlywithin an average of 1.2 secondsbut concerns about claims denial are rampant across the industry. Companies use of artificial intelligence to deny claims is compounding the problem. Fewer than 1 in 20 Americans know how much healthcare services will cost before they get them. [Images: Adobe Stock] Curbing the rise in health insurance premiums Many Americans struggle to afford monthly insurance premiums. But curbing that increase significantly may be impossible without reining in overall healthcare costs and, paradoxically, keeping more people insured. Insurance works by pooling money paid by members of an insurance plan. That money covers all members healthcare costs, with some using more than they contribute and others less. Premium prices therefore depend on how many people are in the plan, as well as the services insurance will cover and the services people actually use. Because healthcare costs are rising overall, commercial insurance companies may not be able to significantly lower premiums without reducing their ability to cover costs and absorb risk. Nearly two-thirds of Americans under age 65 receive health insurance through employers. Another 6.9% of them get it through Affordable Care Act marketplaces, where enrollment numbers are extremely sensitive to premium costs. Enrollment in ACA plans nearly doubled in 2021, from about 12 million to more than 24 million, when the government introduced subsidies to reduce premiums during the COVID-19 pandemic. But when the subsidies expired on January 1, 2026, about 1.4 million dropped coverage, and for most who didnt, premiums more than doubled. The Congressional Budget Office projects that another 3.7 million will become uninsured in 2027, reversing some of the huge gains made since the ACA was passed in 2010. When health insurance costs rise, healthier people may risk going without. Those who remain insured tend to need more health services, requiring those more costly services to be covered by a smaller pool of people and raising premium prices even higher. The Trump administration has proposed routing the money spent on subsidies directly to eligible Americans to help them purchase health insurance. How much people would receive is unclear, but amounts in previous proposals wouldnt cover what the subsidies provided. To sum it up, healthcare is extremely complicated and there are numerous barriers to reforms, as successive U.S. administrations have learned over the years. Whether the Trump administration finds some success will depend on how well the policies are able to surmount these and other obstacles. Patrick Aguilar is the managing director of health at Washington University in St. Louis. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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