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Eli Lilly’s experimental weight-loss pill could be fast-tracked under a one- to two-month review process recently launched by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, several Wall Street analysts said. Analysts speculate that the drug, orforglipron, is a viable candidate given the growing cost burden of expensive injectable weight-loss drugs and the fact that Lilly is expanding its U.S. manufacturing issues the Trump Administration has prioritized. Lilly, based in Indianapolis, declined to comment. The FDA is reviewing an oral version of Denmark-based rival Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 obesity drug, with a decision expected in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs recently estimated that if orforglipron were to launch one quarter earlier than expected, it would bring in another $1 billion in revenue to Lilly. The FDA in July detailed terms of its new “Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher,” under which an experimental drug meeting certain criteria could be approved within a month or two. The agency’s standard review takes 10 months. “FDA policymakers have tried to come up with ideas to speed important products to market. It is in part directed to achieving some of the (Trump) Administration’s goals,” said Chad Landmon, chair of Polsenelli’s patent and FDA practice. The program is part of the FDA’s push to streamline drug reviews and, if new competition results in lower prices, aligns with President Donald Trump’s goal of reducing pharmaceutical prices in the United States, which pays the most in the world. Lilly’s injected weight-loss drug – with an estimated net price of nearly $8,000 a year – and similar drugs from Novo Nordisk pose a cost burden in the United States, where about 40% of adults are obese. Employers and health insurers have cited the spending as unsustainable. “We think orforglipron is a prime candidate for this pilot program as it treats a high-burden chronic condition and can be priced at parity,” Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari said in a recent research note. He referred to the idea of a worldwide price for the drug, rather than the industry’s usual strategy of pricing at a premium in the United States. The new FDA program is “a perfect fit” for Lilly’s pill, according to Citi Research analyst Geoffrey Meacham. The FDA, which declined to comment, has said it would issue five of the new nontransferable vouchers in 2025. To be eligible, the agency said applications need to support at least one of five objectives: address a U.S. public health crisis; deliver innovation; address a large unmet medical need; onshore drug development and manufacturing; or increase affordability. Orforglipron is designed to mimic the appetite-suppressing GLP-1 hormone targeted by Lilly’s blockbuster injection tirzepatide sold under the brand names Mounjaro and Zepbound. The GLP-1 class, which includes Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy, has enjoyed unprecedented demand in recent years, with some analysts projecting annual global sales of $150 billion by the end of the decade. Lilly, in an emailed statement, said the new FDA program is “a promising initiative,” but it was “too early to discuss how this submission pathway might relate to any of our specific programs.” The company has said it plans to submit the daily GLP-1 pill for regulatory review later this year. CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC in August that Lilly expects to launch the pill around the world “this time next year.” Orforglipron was shown in a recent study to help patients lose 12.4% of their body weight. Full results from that trial will be presented this week at a meeting in Vienna of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes. Goldman Sachs, in a recent analysis, forecast U.S. net prices for new GLP-1 obesity pills at around $400 a month. It said feedback from medical experts “points to the importance of affordability for competitive positioning” and patient access. It also said competition from new market entrants will lead to price erosion. A recent report from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review estimated a current U.S. net price for tirzepatide of about $664 a month. People without adequate insurance coverage can buy the drug directly from Lilly for $499 a month. Unlike orforglipron, which is a synthetic drug, Novo’s experimental obesity pill is a more difficult-to-manufacture peptide, which analysts say could give Lilly more leeway on price. Deena Beasley, Reuters
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The world’s fondness for matcha is about to be tested by steep price increases.Global demand for the powdered tea has skyrocketed around the world, fueled by consumer interest in its health benefits and by the bright green matcha lattes bubbling up on social media. In the U.S., retail sales of matcha are up 86% from three years ago, according to NIQ, a market research firm.But the matcha market is troubled. In Japan, one of the biggest matcha producers, poor weather reduced this year’s harvest. Matcha is still plentiful in China, another major producer, but labor shortages and high demand have also raised prices there.For Americans, there’s the added impact of tariffs. Imports from China are currently subject to a 37.5% tariff, while the U.S. has a 15% tariff on imports from Japan. It’s not clear if tea will be exempted from tariffs because it’s a natural product that’s not grown in significant quantities in the U.S. an accommodation that the Trump administration has made for cork from the European Union. The Commerce Department and the U.S. Trade Representative didn’t respond to messages left by The Associated Press.Aaron Vick, a senior tea buyer with California-based tea importer G.S. Haly, says he paid 75% more for the highest-grade 2025 crop of Japanese matcha, which will arrive in the U.S. later this fall. He expects lower grades of matcha to cost 30% to 50% more. Chinese matcha while generally cheaper than Japanese matcha is also getting more expensive because of high demand, he said.“People should expect an enormous increase in the price of matcha this year,” Vick said. “It’s going to be a bit of a tough ride for matcha devotees. They will have to show the depth of their commitment at the cash register.”Even before this year’s harvest, growing demand was straining matcha supplies. Making matcha is precise and labor intensive. Farmers grow tencha a green tea leaf in the shade. In the spring, the leaves are harvested, steamed, de-stemmed and de-veined and then stone ground into a fine powder. Tencha can be harvested again in the summer and fall, but the later harvests are generally of lower quality.There are ways to cut corners, like using a jet mill, which grinds the leaves with high pressure air. But Japan has other issues, including a rapidly aging workforce and limited tencha production. And despite Japanese agricultural ministry trying to coax tea growers to switch to tencha from regular green tea, many are reluctant to do so, concerned that the matcha boom will fade.That’s giving an opening to China, where matcha originated but fell out of favor in the 14th century. Chinese matcha production has been growing in recent years to meet both domestic and international demand.Chinese matcha has historically been considered inferior to Japanese matcha and used as a flavoring for things like matcha-flavored KitKat bars instead of as a drinking tea. But the quality is improving, according to Jason Walker, the marketing director at Firsd Tea, the New Jersey-based U.S. subsidiary of Zhejiang Tea Group, China’s largest tea exporter.“We are seeing more and more interest in Chinese matcha because of capacity issues and changing perception,” Walker said. “It used to be the idea that it has to be Japanese matcha or nothing. But we have a good product too.”Starbucks is among the companies using matcha from China for its lattes. The company said it also sources matcha from Japan and South Korea. Dunkin’ and Dutch Bros. didn’t respond when asked where they source the matcha.Josh Mordecai, the supply chain director for London-based tea supplier Good & Proper Tea, said he is approached almost daily by Chinese matcha suppliers. For now, he only buys matcha from Japan, but the cost to acquire it has risen 40% so he’ll have to raise prices, he said.Mordecai said he saw more demand for matcha in the last year than in the previous nine years combined. If matcha prices continue to rise, he wonders if consumers will switch to other tea varieties like hojicha, a roasted Japanese green tea.“We’ll see if this is a bubble or not. Nothing stays on social media that long,” Mordecai said.Julia Mills, a food and drink analyst for the market research company Mintel, expects the social media interest in matcha to die down. But she thinks matcha will remain on menus for a while.Mills said matcha appeals to customers interested in wellness, since it contains antioxidants and l-theanine, an amino acid known for its calming effects, and it’s less caffeinated than coffee. Millennials and Generation Z customers are more likely to have tried matcha than others, Mills said.The traditional way of preparing it, whisking the powder together with hot water in a small bowl, also appeals to drinkers who want to slow down and be more intentional, Mills said.That’s true for Melissa Lindsay of San Francisco, who whisks up some matcha for herself every morning. Lindsay has noticed prices rising for her high-end matcha, but it’s a habit she’d find hard to quit.“It’s not just a tea bag in water,” Lindsay said. “It’s a whole experience of making it to your liking.”David Lau, the owner of Asha Tea House in San Francisco, hopes to keep customers drinking matcha by limiting price increases. Lau raised the price of his matcha latte by 50 cents after the cost the matcha he buys from Japan more than doubled. He’s also looking into alternate suppliers from China and elsewhere.“We’re in the affordable luxury business, you know, just like any other specialty cafe. We want people to be able to come every day, and once you reach a certain price level, you start to price people out,” he said. “We want to be really cognizant and aware of not doing that. AP Video Journalist Haven Daley contributed from San Francisco. Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Business Writer
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E-Commerce
President Donald Trump filed a $15 billion defamation lawsuit against The New York Times and four of its journalists on Monday, according to court documents.The lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Florida names several articles and one book written by two of the publication’s journalists and published in the lead up to the 2024 election, saying they are “part of a decades-long pattern by the New York Times of intentional and malicious defamation against President Trump.”“Defendants published such statements negligently, with knowledge of the falsity of the statements, and/or with reckless disregard of their truth or falsity,” the lawsuit says.The New York Times did not immediately respond to an email requesting comment early Tuesday.In a Truth Social post announcing the lawsuit, Trump accused The New York Times of lying about him and defaming him, saying it has become “a virtual ‘mouthpiece’ for the Radical Left Democrat Party.”Trump has gone after other media outlets, including filing a $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the The Wall Street Journal and media mogul Rupert Murdoch in July after the newspaper published a story reporting on his ties to wealthy financier Jeffrey Epstein. Associated Press
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