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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly, citing stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.S. tariff rate to 17.3%, from 24.4%. It warned, however, that the global economy faced major risks, including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions, and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates and tighten global financial conditions. “The world economy is still hurting, and it’s going to continue hurting with tariffs at that level, even though it’s not as bad as it could have been,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist. In an update to its World Economic Outlook from April, the IMF raised its global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point, to 3%, for 2025, and by 0.1 percentage point, to 3.1%, for 2026. However, that is still below the 3.3% growth it had projected for both years in January and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7%. It said global headline inflation was expected to fall to 4.2% in 2025 and to 3.6% in 2026, but noted that inflation would likely remain above target in the U.S. as tariffs passed through to U.S. consumers in the second half of the year. The U.S. effective tariff ratemeasured by import duty revenue as a proportion of goods importshas dropped since April, but it remains far higher than its estimated level of 2.5% in early January. The corresponding tariff rate for the rest of the world is 3.5%, compared with 4.1% in April, the IMF said. U.S. President Donald Trump has upended global trade by imposing a universal tariff of 10% on nearly all countries in April and by threatening even higher duties to kick in on Friday. Far higher tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China were put on hold until August 12, with talks in Stockholm this week potentially leading to a further extension. The U.S. has also announced steep duties ranging from 25% to 50% on automobiles, steel, and other metals, with higher duties soon to be announced on pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductor chips. Such future tariff increases are not reflected in the IMF numbers and could raise effective tariff rates further, creating bottlenecks and amplifying the effect of higher tariffs, the IMF said. Shifting tariffs Gourinchas said the IMF was evaluating new 15% tariff deals reached by the U.S. with the European Union and Japan over the past week, which came too late to factor into the July forecast, but he said the tariff rates were similar to the 17.3% rate underlying the IMF’s forecast. “Right now, we are not seeing a major change compared to the effective tariff rate that the U.S. is imposing on other countries,” he said, adding it was not yet clear if these agreements would last. “We’ll have to see whether these deals are sticking, whether they’re unraveled, whether they’re followed by other changes in trade policy,” Gourinchas said. Staff simulations showed that global growth in 2025 would be roughly 0.2 of a percentage point lower if the maximum tariff rates announced in April and July were implemented, the IMF said. The IMF said the global economy was proving resilient for now, but uncertainty remained high and current economic activity suggested “distortions from trade, rather than underlying robustness.” Gourinchas said the 2025 outlook had been helped by what he called “a tremendous amount” of front-loading as businesses tried to get ahead of the tariffs, but he warned that the stockpiling boost would not last. “That is going to fade away,” he said, adding: “That’s going to be a drag on economic activity in the second half of the year and into 2026. There is going to be payback for that front-loading, and that’s one of the risks we face.” Tariffs were expected to remain high, he said, pointing to signs that U.S. consumer prices were starting to edge higher. “The underlying tariff is much higher than it was back in January, February. If that stays . . . that will weigh on growth going forward, contributing to a really lackluster global performance.” One unusual factor has been a depreciation of the dollar, not seen during previous trade tensions, Gourinchas said, noting that the lower dollar was adding to the tariff shock for other countries while also helping ease financial conditions. U.S. growth was expected to reach 1.9% in 2025, up 0.1 percentage point from April’s outlook, and edge up to 2% in 2026. A new U.S. tax cut and spending law was expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by 1.5 percentage points, with tariff revenues offsetting that by about half, the IMF said. The IMF lifted its forecast for the euro area by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 1%, in 2025, and left the 2026 forecast unchanged at 1.2%. It said the upward revision reflected a historically large surge in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the U.S.; without it, the revision would have been half as big. China’s outlook got a bigger upgrade of 0.8 of a percentage point, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year, and the significant reduction in U.S.-China tariffs after Washington and Beijing declared a temporary truce. The IMF increased its forecast for Chinese growth in 2026 by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 4.2%. Overall, growth is expected to reach 4.1% in emerging markets and developing economies in 2025, edging lower to 4% in 2026, it said. The IMF upped its forecast for world trade by 0.9 of a percentage point, to 2.6%, but cut its forecast for 2026 by 0.6 of a percentage point, to 1.9%. By Andrea Shalal, Reuters
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E-Commerce
A big American brand partners with a young, beautiful celebrity in what it thinks is a clever and iconic piece of advertising. But as soon as the ad drops, the reaction is exactly the opposite of what the brand was hoping for. There is an immediate backlash against how the ad has casually, and ignorantly, waded into issues like identity politics, societal divisions, and systemic racism. Sound familiar? Of course, it sounds a helluva lot like the swamp of hot takes American Eagle and Sydney Sweeney currently find themselves wandering waist-deep in. But I was actually talking about the infamous Pepsi and Kendall Jenner ad from 2017. So much has changed since then, but oh, how any given brands lack of cultural awareness can remain constant. Sydney Sweeney x American Eagle, oh my god. pic.twitter.com/tDkeGT9R7G— Sydney Sweeney Daily (@sweeneydailyx) July 24, 2025 Last week, American Eagle dropped a new campaign of ads featuring Sweeney. One has her sensually sliding into a pair of jeans while explaining what genes are. Jeans are passed down from parents to offspring, often determining traits like hair color, personality, and even eye color, she said. My jeans are blue. Cut to a male voice-over and tagline: Sydney Sweeney has great jeans. That double entendre between denim and genetic traits immediately raised the ire of the internet, with many pointing to the very blond hair and blue eyes of the campaigns star as a complicated and divisive ideal to be touting in 2025. Accusations hurled at the brand ranged from plain ignorance to full-on Nazi propaganda. On the other end are those finding fresh fodder for their screams against the woke mind virus. Wherever you stand on that spectrum, there is no denying the fact that the campaign has gone much bigger than it ever would have as a result of this outsize negative reaction. No matter what anyone says, this was certainly not the brands intention. Defining moment This was no one-off social post, but a full-throated brand extravaganza. American Eagle chief marketing officer Craig Brommers was hyping its scale on LinkedIn last week, about how it would hit the Sphere in Las Vegas, 3D billboards in Times Square and L.A., a Euphoria partnership with HBO Max, and more. A massive thank-you and CONGRATULATIONS to our internal teams and external partnersand SYDNEY herselffor this defining moment, Brommers wrote. Ashley Schapiro, American Eagles vice president of marketing, media, performance, and engagement, wrote a LinkedIn post outlining part of the process. She said that on a Zoom call with Sweeney, they asked her, How far do you want to push it? Without hesitation, she smirked and said, Lets push it. Im game. Our response? Challenge Accepted, Schapiro wrote. From that moment on, Syds sentiment guided every frame, every stitch and every unexpected twist of the Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeanscampaign. Infusing our own personal cheeky energy and making us as we envisioned how the world would experience the launch. The star power of Sydney and the double meaning behind the campaign has a culture-shaping power beyond anything I could have ever imagined being a part ofjust check your social feeds. There are any number of ways to talk about this ad and campaign overallfrom whether it intentionally or not promotes outdated genetic ideals to whether the intended audience is people who buy jeans or those buying meme stocks. But let’s look at these spots as creative advertising ideas. Reheated ideas The spot featuring Sweeney squeezing into a pair of jeans while lying down and doling out a genetics lesson is a remarkable facsimile of Calvin Kleins 1980 spot with Brooke Shields giving her own breakdown of genetics while … you guessed it … squeezing into a pair of jeans while lying down. Another Sweeney spot has her going all meta, insisting that shes not trying to get you to buy American Eagle jeans at all. This hews incredibly close to a 2017 Sprite ad starring LeBron James, in which the NBA star insists that hes not here to convince you to drink the soda at all. Just like the controversy itself, the ideas here arent new. But there was a very simple way to feature the exact same work without all the negative baggage. Meaning over intent Marcus Collins, a consultant, author, and University of Michigan marketing professor, often writes about brands as vessels for meaning. Meaning is subjective, not objective, and that is something all brand marketers need to keep in mind. On Instagram, Collins said: Despite whatever the intentions the brand had in making this ad, what it communicates to people is that there is a prototypical standard for good genes: white, blonde hair, blue eyes. And of course, especially considering the political and social cultural backdrop that we’re in right now, that could seem like some pretty bad dog whistling. Collins goes on to outline how American Eagle could have done this campaign without the whistle. Why not feature other people, who may still be objectively beautiful, to illustrate a variety of good jeans? Collins points to stars like Idris Elba or Halle Berry, but American Eagle neednt even have looked outside their own brand roster. Last year, the brand launched a collab collection with tennis star Coco Gauff, as well as her second ad campaign for the slogan Live Your Life. The 21-year-old is not only in the brand’s ideal age bracket, she’s also smart, stylish, beautiful, and just happens to have a collection of 19 professional tennis trophies, including the 2023 U.S. Open and 2025 French Open titles. Now, those are some pretty damn good jeans, too.
Category:
E-Commerce
Between 1863 and 1869, the first transcontinental line, known as the Pacific Railroad, was built in the United States. The line ran from Omaha, Nebraska, to Sacramento, California, and carried passengers and goods alike. It was built mostly by the Central Pacific Railroad Company of California and Union Pacific, and marked a turning point in the Industrial Revolution and Americas economy when it came to shipping goods from the West Coast. Now, Union Pacific is looking to expand upon history. Pending approval by the Surface Transportation Board (STB), it says it hopes to acquire Norfolk Southern through a stock and cash transaction by 2027, and create the Union Pacific Transcontinental Railroad. According to a press release, this will involve Norfolk Southern shareholders receiving one Union Pacific common share, and $88.82 in cash for each share of Norfolk Southern. This will represent a $320 value per share, based on Union Pacifics July 16, 2025, closing stock price. Ultimately, it will allow them to buy Norfolk Southern for $85 billion. Norfolk Southern shareholders would represent 27% of ownership in the combined company. If the merger is not approved, the agreement reflects a $2.5 billion termination fee. Their end goal is to connect the West and East coasts across 43 states and link around 100 shipment ports throughout North America. They say it would be the first transcontinental railroad in America, but in reality, it would be the first line to carry freight (not passengers) without needing to transfer shipments between rail lines. This combination is transformational, enhancing the best freight transportation system in the worldit’s a win for the American economy, it’s a win for our customers, and its a win for our people, Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena said in a statement. It builds on President Abraham Lincolns vision of a transcontinental railroad from nearly 165 years ago and advances our Safety, Service, and Operational Excellence Strategy. Who does a transcontinental railroad benefit? Currently, there are seven Class 1 freight railroads operating in the U.S.: BNSF Railway Co., Canadian National Railway (Grand Trunk Corporation), Canadian Pacific (Soo Line Corporation), CSX Transportation, Kansas City Southern Railway Co., Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific Railroad. Echoing the sentiment of the Trump administrations America First strategy, the statement announcing the merger says this venture would transform the U.S. supply chain, unleash the industrial strength of American manufacturing, and create new sources of economic growth and workforce opportunity that preserve union jobs. Additionally, Union Pacific claims the merging of routes would improve transit times, enhance rail competitionspecifically against the Canadian lines that operate in the U.S.and move more freight via train for a lower consumer and manufacturer cost. The company cites the pros of rail shipping over highway truckers as more cost effective on a per-ton mile basis, faster due to a lack of traffic concerns, and more environmentally fuel efficient. On the flip side, the cons of rail include that it’s less cost-efficient for smaller shipments, the shipping modes inability to reach specific locations all the time, and truckers are likely to have something to say about any transportation that moves from truck to rail. Linking America’s coasts According to the Federal Railroad Administration, 52% of rail freight consists of bulk commodities. These widely include agriculture, energy products, hazardous materials and chemicals, automobiles, food, and other various materials. The other 48% consists of consumer goods and miscellaneous items like clothes, electronics, and producemost of which are considered intermodal, meaning that they are small enough to be transferred for the last mile of shipment via plane, truck, or another transportation mode. And per Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, these goods equal around 1.5 billion tons currently moved via freight railroads every year. What happens next? The STB will review the agreement after the companies file their application to mergesomething they say they plan to do within the next six months. A merger of this capacity will likely raise questions regarding rail regulations and the ethics behind competition in America, as more and more freight rail mergers have taken place over the past few years. As of this afternoon, both Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) shares are down nearly 3%.
Category:
E-Commerce
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