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James Barrat is an author and documentary filmmaker who has written and produced for National Geographic, Discovery, PBS, and many other broadcasters. Whats the big idea? The Intelligence Explosion: When AI Beats Humans at Everything [Photo: St. Martin’s Press] Artificial intelligence could reshape our world for the better or threaten our very existence. Todays chatbots are just the beginning. We could be heading for a future in which artificial superintelligence challenges human dominance. To keep our grip on the reins of progress when faced with an intelligence explosion, we need to set clear standards and precautions for AI development. Below, James shares five key insights from his new book, The Intelligence Explosion: When AI Beats Humans at Everything. Listen to the audio versionread by James himselfbelow, or in the Next Big Idea App. 1. The rise of generative AI is impressive, but not without problems. Generative AI tools, such as ChatGPT and Dall-E, have taken the world by storm, demonstrating their ability to write, draw, and even compose music in ways that seem almost human. Generative means they generate or create things. But these abilities come with some steep downsides. These systems can easily create fake news, bogus documents, or deepfake photos and videos that appear and sound authentic. Even the AI experts who build these models dont fully understand how they come up with their answers. Generative AI is a black box system, meaning you can see the data the model is trained on and the words or pictures it puts out, but even the designers cannot explain what happens on the inside. Stuart Russell, coauthor of Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, said this about generative AI, We have absolutely no idea how it works, and we are releasing it to hundreds of millions of people. We give it credit cards, bank accounts, social media accounts. Were doing everything we can to make sure that it can take over the world. Generative AI hallucinates, meaning the models sometimes spit out stuff that sounds believable but is wrong or nonsensical. This makes them risky for important tasks. When asked about a specific academic paper, a generative AI might confidently respond, The 2019 study by Dr. Leah Wolfe at Stanford University found that 73% of people who eat chocolate daily have improved memory function, as published in the Journal of Cognitive Enhancement, Volume 12, Issue 4. This sounds completely plausible and authoritative, but many details are made up: There is no Dr. Leah Wolfe at Stanford, no such study from 2019, and the 73% statistic is fiction. Generative AI hallucinates, meaning the models sometimes spit out stuff that sounds believable but is wrong or nonsensical. The hallucination is particularly problematic because its presented with such confidence and specificity that it seems legitimate. Users might cite this nonexistent research or make decisions based on completely false information. On top of that, as generative AI models get bigger, they start picking up surprise skillslike translating languages and writing codeeven though nobody programmed them to do that. These unpredictable outcomes are called emergent properties. They hint at even bigger challenges as AI continues to advance and grow larger. 2. The push for artificial general intelligence (AGI). The next big goal in AI is something called AGI, or artificial general intelligence. This means creating an AI that can perform nearly any task a human can, in any field. Tech companies and governments are racing to build AGI because the potential payoff is huge. AGI could automate all sorts of knowledge work, making us way more productive and innovative. Whoever gets there first could dominate global industries and set the rules for everyone else. Some believe that AGI could help us tackle massive problems, such as climate change, disease, and poverty. Its also seen as a game-changer for national security. However, the unpredictability were already seeing will only intensify as we approach AGI, which raises the stakes. 3. From AGI to something way smarter. If we ever reach AGI, things could escalate quickly. This is where the concept of the intelligence explosion comes into play. The idea was first put forward by I. J. Good. Good was a brilliant British mathematician and codebreaker who worked alongside Alan Turing at Bletchley Park during World War II. Together, they were crucial in breaking German codes and laying the foundations for modern computing. An intelligence explosion would come with incredible upsides. Drawing on this experience, Good realized that if we built a machine that was as smart as a human, it might soon be able to make itself even smarter. Once it started improving itself, it could get caught in a kind of feedback loop, rapidly building smarter and smarter versionsway beyond anything humans could keep up with. This runaway process could lead to artificial superintelligence, also known as ASI. An intelligence explosion would come with incredible upsides. Superintelligent AI could solve problems weve never been able to crack, such as curing diseases, reversing aging, or mitigating climate change. It could push science and technology forward at lightning speed, automate all kinds of work, and help us make smarter decisions by analyzing information in ways people simply cannot. 4. The dangers of an intelligence explosion. Is ASI dangerous? You bet. In an interview, sci-fi great Arthur C. Clark told me, We umans steer the future not because were the fastest or strongest creature, but the most intelligent. If we share the planet with something more intelligent than we are, they will steer the future. The same qualities that could make superintelligent AI so helpful also make it dangerous. If its goals arent perfectly lined up with whats good for humansa problem called alignmentit could end up doing things that are catastrophic for us. For example, a superintelligent AI might use up all the planets resources to complete its assigned mission, leaving nothing left for humans. Nick Bostrom, a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford, created a thought experiment called the paperclip maximizer. If a superintelligent AI were asked to make paperclips, without very careful instructions, it would turn all the matter in the universe into paperclipsincluding you and me. Whoever controls this kind of AI could also end up with an unprecedented level of power over the rest of the world. Plus, the speed and unpredictability of an intelligence explosion could throw global economies and societies into complete chaos before we have time to react. 5. How AI could overpower humanity. These dangers can play out in very real ways. A misaligned superintelligence could pursue a badly worded goal, causing disaster. Suppose you asked the AI to eliminate cancer; it could do that by eliminating people. Common sense is not something AI has ever demonstrated. AI-controlled weapons could escalate conflicts faster than humans can intervene, making war more likely and more deadly. In May 2010, a flash crash occurred on the stock exchange, triggered by high-frequency trading algorithms. Stocks were purchased and sold at a pace humans could not keep up with, costing investors tens of millions of dollars. A misaligned superintelligence could pursue a badly worded goal, causing disaster. Advanced AI could take over essential infrastructuresuch as power grids or financial systemsmaking us entirely dependent and vulnerable. As AI gets more complex, it might develop strange new motivations that its creators never imagined, and those could be dangerous. Bad actors, like authoritarian regimes or extremist groups, could use AI for mass surveillance, propaganda, cyberattacks, or worse, giving them unprecedented new tools to control or harm people. We are seeing surveillance systems morph into enhanced weapons systems in Gaza right now. In Western China, surveillance systems keep track of tens of millions of people in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. AI-enhanced surveillance systems keep track of who is crossing Americas border with Mexico. Todays unpredictable, sometimes baffling AI is just a preview of the much bigger risks and rewards that could come from AGI and superintelligence. As we rush to create smarter machines, we must remember that these systems could bring both incredible benefits and existential dangers. If we want to stay in control, we need to move forward with strong oversight, regulations, and a commitment to transparency. This article originally appeared in Next Big Idea Club magazine and is reprinted with permission.
Category:
E-Commerce
Youre in a meeting, the slides are rolling, people are nodding, others are fiddling on their phones, and then it happens. You have a question. You want to be seen as engaged, so you open your mouth, and words start to tumble out . . .and the room goes still. Silence. Weve all been told there are no dumb questions. But if youve ever watched a room collectively glaze over while someone tries to stitch a stream of consciousness into something coherent, you know dumb questions are alive and well. At their core, questions are about curiosity. And while curiosity may have killed the cat, in your career questions can be pure rocket fuel. When done right, curiosity makes you look sharp, collaborative, and strategic. However, haphazard curiosity may lead to you finding yourself metaphorically under a conference table wishing for a 13 Going on 30 moment where you magically reappear as 30, flirty, and thriving, just anywhere but in that meeting. So how do you harness curiosity as career capital instead of career sabotage? Thats a smart question. And in this five-part playbook well dive into practical (and slightly cheeky) ways to do it. 1. Timing is everything: Ask early, but not TOO early When youre new to a project, your brain lights up with questions like a big ol neon sign. Resist the urge to fire them all off at once. Half will answer themselves as you absorb context. The other half will get sharper the longer they simmer. Try this: Start a secret doc, dump all your questions in, and revisit after 48 hours. Cross off the ones that solved themselves, and reframe the ones worth asking. Now youre not blurting. Youre curating like a purveyor of art. 2. Make it about the work, not about you Curiosity should sharpen the team, not sound like a personal confession. Theres a big difference between I dont get slide 7 and Can we talk about how slide 7 connects to the project goal? The first highlights your gap (and unlike the London Tube, you should definitely mind that gap). The second elevates collective clarity. Try this: Swap I dont understand for Can we walk through. Same curiosity, different energy. Suddenly, youre not lost. Instead, youre leading alignment. 3. Use the after-action window Right after a big meeting or decision, the team takes a collective exhale. Thats your sweet spot. People are reflective, not defensive. A question in this window is constructive. (Cue Angela Bassett walking away from the burning car in Waiting to Exhale. Big exhale. Big release. Right timing.) Try this: Send a quick note: Great discussion today. One thing Im still noodling on: how does this decision ripple out six months from now? Thats not nitpicking, its being future-focused. And leadership loves a forward thinker. 4. Model Curiosity If youre running a meeting, the best way to spark smart curiosity is to show your own. Leaders who frame questions strategically demonstrate how to ask questions in ways that move work forward and dont suck air out of the room. Try this: Instead of ending a meeting with the standard Any questions?which usually results in blank stares because everyones already at lunchmodel the kind of curiosity you want from the team. For example: This was a great discussion. What perspectives might we still be missing? That shows curiosity as a tool to sharpen impact, not poke holes. 5. Aim for impact Curiosity is about impact, not volume. Not every question deserves airtime. Theres a fine line between thoughtful and time-wasting. The fastest way to tank your reputation is asking something Google couldve quickly answered, or a question that only benefits yourself. Talking doesnt always equal contributing. Sometimes adding value means being a great active listener. Try this: Before speaking, ask yourself if the answer is easily searchable on your own and if the answer will benefit more than just you. If the answer is yes to either, park it. After the meeting, conduct the search or find a way to bring it up privately (either in a 1:1 or a Slack) and protect the groups momentum and keep your credibility. Nobody wants to be the human embodiment of this meeting couldve been an email. No one likes that person. Sorry, not sorry. Questions dont just reveal what you dont know, they reveal how you think. Curate them with care, and you wont just be asking questions. Youll be shaping the conversation.
Category:
E-Commerce
The labor market may be weaker than previously reported. According to newly revised Bureau and Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the U.S. added nearly a million fewer jobs than it had said earlier. On Tuesday, a press release explained that 911,000 fewer jobs (-0.6%) were added to the U.S. economy over the last year, in a period that ended in March. The new data reveals that only an estimated 70,000 jobs were added each month, instead of 147,000. Overall, only 850,000 were added to the market over the past year, less than half of what was previously reported. The new report is significant, as it marks the largest preliminary revision of BLS data since the year 2000. The data also represents the largest number of jobs lost since the 2009 financial crisis. The official report will come in February 2026. The new data comes weeks after Trump fired the BLS’s top official, Erika McEntarfer, who was confirmed last year. McEntarfer’s firing followed another string of data revisions, which also pointed to job losses and weak hiring. We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY, Trump posted on Truth Social. The post continued: Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate; they cant be manipulated for political purposes, the president wrote. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. Trump, who has been highly critical of the Labor Department in the past, most notably for its data revisions, has continuously insisted that the economy is strong. But experts say the new report is a sign that the labor market is slowing down.“Today’s data suggests that cooling in the labor market is more dramatic than previously thought,” Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told CBS. “This strengthens the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates next week, as it’s additional evidence that the labor market side of the dual mandate needs some attention.” While the president is pushing back against claims that job growth is stalled, employees seem to be feeling the pressure to keep their current jobs. Likewise, anxiety about the economy is high as workers worry about mass layoffs.
Category:
E-Commerce
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