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Hurricanes are Americas most destructive natural hazards, causing more deaths and property damage than any other type of disaster. Since 1980, these powerful tropical storms have done more than US$1.5 trillion in damage and killed more than 7,000 people. The No. 1 cause of the damages and deaths from hurricanes is storm surge. Storm surge is the rise in the oceans water level, caused by a combination of powerful winds pushing water toward the coastline and reduced air pressure within the hurricane compared to the pressure outside of it. In addition to these factors, waves breaking close to the coast cause the sea level to increase near the coastline, a phenomenon we call wave setup, which can be an important component of storm surge. Accurate storm surge predictions are critical for giving coastal residents time to evacuate and giving emergency responders time to prepare. But storm surge forecasts at high resolution can be slow. As a coastal engineer, I study how storm surge and waves interact with natural and human-made features on the ocean floor and coast and ways to mitigate their impact. I have used physics-based models for coastal flooding and have recently been exploring ways that artificial intelligence can improve the speed of storm surge forecasting. How storm surge is forecast today Today, operational storm surge forecasts rely on hydrodynamic models, which are based on the physics of water flow. These models use current environmental conditionssuch as how fast the storm is moving toward shore, its wind speed and direction, the timing of the tide, and the shape of the seafloor and the landscapeto compute the projected surge height and determine which locations are most at risk. Hydrodynamic models have substantially improved in recent decades, and computers have become significantly more powerful, such that rapid low-resolution simulations are possible over very large areas. However, high-resolution simulation that provide neighborhood-level detail can take several hours to run. Those hours can be critical for communities at risk to evacuate safely and for emergency responders to prepare adequately. To forecast storm surge across a wide area, modelers break up the target area into many small pieces that together form a computational grid or mesh. Picture pixels in an image. The smaller the grid pieces, or cells, the higher the resolution and the more accurate the forecast. However, creating many small cells across a large area requires greater computing power, so forecasting storm surge takes longer as a result. Forecasters can use low-resolution computer grids to speed up the process, but that reduces accuracy, leaving communities with more uncertainty about their flood risk. AI can help speed that up. How AI can create better forecasts There are two main sources of uncertainty in storm surge predictions. One involves the data fed into the computer model. A hurricanes storm track and wind field, which determine where it will make landfall and how intense the surge will be, are still hard to forecast accurately more than a few days in advance. Changes to the coast and sea floor, such as from channel dredging or loss of salt marshes, mangroves or sand dunes, can affect the resistance that storm surge will face. The second uncertainty involves the resolution of the computational grid, over which the mathematical equations of the surge and wave motion are solved. The resolution determines how well the model sees changes in landscape elevation and land cover and accounts for them, and at how much granularity the physics of hurricane surge and waves is solved. AI models can produce detailed predictions faster. For example, engineers and scientists have developed AI models based on deep neural networks that can predict water levels along the coastline quickly and accurately by using data about the wind field. In some cases, these models have been more accurate than traditional hydrodynamic models. AI can also develop forecasts for areas with little historical data, or be used to understand extreme conditions that may not have occurred there before. For these forecasts, physics-based models can be used to generate synthetic data to train the AI on scenarios that might be possible but havent actually happened. Once an AI model is trained on both the historic and synthetic data, it can quickly generate surge forecasts using details about the wind and atmospheric pressure. Training the AI on data from hydrodynamic models can also improve its ability to quickly generate inundation risk maps showing which streets or houses are likely to flood in extreme events that may not have a historical precedent but could happen in the future. The future of AI for hurricane forecasting AI is already being used in operational storm surge forecasts in a limited way, mainly to augment the commonly used physics-based models. In addition to improving those methods, my team and other researchers have been developing ways to use AI for storm surge prediction using observed data, assessing the damage after hurricanes, and processing camera images to deduce flood intensity. That can fill a critical gap in the data needed for validating storm surge models at granular levels. As artificial intelligence models rapidly spread through every aspect of our lives and more data becomes available for training them, the technology offers potential to improve hurricane and storm surge forecasting in the future, giving coastal communities faster and more detailed warnings about the risks on the way. Navid Tahvildari is an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Florida International University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Job interviews are nerve-wracking at the best of times. But for those who see themselves as introverts, they can be extra intimidating. Its not due to a lack of skill. The ability to think on your feet and sell yourselfno doubt important in the interview processtends to come more easily to those who go through life a little more extroverted. And yet more Americans see themselves as introverted than extroverted. Contrary to conventional wisdom, thats not necessarily a bad trait in the workplace: Research has found that introverted leaders outperform extroverts by 28%, driving higher productivity from their teams. Connar Walford, student success lead at the U.K. jobs and career advice website TargetJobs, offers five strategies that introverts can utilize to ace a job interview. The Energy Anchor The idea of being put on the spot in an interview is enough to make any introverts heart race and palms sweat. That’s why thorough preparation is essential for anyone, but for introverts in particular. Walford suggests identifying up to five “energy anchors” before even setting foot in the interview room. These are previous work wins that you can recall with ease. These can be anything from receiving a compliment from a peer to working on a successful project, he says. These anchors help to regulate the nervous system and maintain your confidence throughout the interview. The Power of Silence While some extroverts might dominate conversations, introverts can be skilled listeners, giving them an edge over the competition. Those pauses to compose your thoughts before speaking? Theyre not awkward. In fact, they can be a superpower. People often feel that they need to fill a silence. However, instead of rushing to speak, utilize it, Walford says. A calm pause can signal authority, thoughtfulness, and composureall great working traits. Reframe the interview Rather than regarding the interview as your one shot to impress the hiring manager, heightening an already intimidating situation, you could flip the script. Look at it as an opportunity to determine if the role is the correct fit on both sides of the coin. This reframes the power dynamic from performing to connecting, eliminating the fear of being judged,” Walford says. The interview doesnt end when the door closes Many introverts might be tempted to run from the room as fast as possible and wipe it from memory before the overthinking kicks in. Remember, although the interview itself may have ended, the process hasnt. Always send an email post-interview thanking those present, including any info that may have slipped your mind, and ask any additional questions, Walford says. This shows professionalism, gratitude, and a strong interest in the role. Navigate Energy The interview process can be draining for anyone, but particularly for introverts who typically lose energy during social interactions. Remember to manage your energy pre-interview by fitting in quiet time, Walford says. This helps navigate potential overstimulation, buildup of nervous energy, and fatigue. Afterward, schedule some well-deserved alone time, and reward yourself with whatever fills your cup back up. Perhaps that’s coffee and a sweet treat. Or a glass of wine in the bath. Youve earned it.
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E-Commerce
One minute, you’re watching a hilarious or even completely bland YouTube short. The next? You realize you’ve just lost an hour of work time or managed to stay up way too lateagain. Losing track of time when watching shorts is not an uncommon experience. But now, YouTube wants to help you set limits to stay on task, hit the hay, or just, ya’ know, not lose precious hours of your life to Shorts. On Wednesday, the video streaming giant rolled out a new timer feature on its mobile app. When users log on, they can go into their settings and click on “shorts feed limit” to set a timer that will remind them to stop scrolling. Once users hit their time limit, the app will send them a notification letting them know they’ve reached their limit. Of course, it’s not hard to dismiss the timer and keep on watching Shorts. Still, the feature may help to nudge users to get back to work. Shorts are a core part of the YouTube experience, YouTube said in its announcement. Setting a scrolling time limit on the Shorts feed allows for this exploration while helping users be more deliberate about their viewing habits and manage their time effectively. When it comes to setting time limits for scrolling, this isn’t YouTube’s first effort. The company has already had both “Take a Break” and “Bedtime” features in its mobile app settings. And while other social media platforms, like Instagram and TikTok, have since added similar features, YouTube was one of the first streaming platforms to help users put their phones down. Earlier this year, YouTube announced it was doubling down on its bedtime reminder feature for teens, which became automatic in 2023. At the time, Jon-Patrick Allen, a professor of social and behavioral sciences at Rutgers School of Public Health, told Fast Company that users will still have to exercise some self-restraint. It will be effective for a small proportion of people, but the onus is still on the user to turn it off.” Allen added, “These are all cosmetic things that may work for some people, but arent really going to shift user behavior. Either way, the move feels like an invaluable one. According to YouTube internal data, per Sprout Social, last year, YouTube Shorts averaged 70 billion views a day. And it’s not just Gen Alpha and Gen Z who are endlessly watching YouTube hijinx: 25-to-34-year-oldsa combination of both Gen Z and millennialsare the platform’s most diligent viewers. No wonder workers are distracted and groggy.
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