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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Just because a home listing gets a price cut doesnt necessarily indicate that the home actually sold for less than its comps. Some real estate agents use pricing strategies that intentionally list too high to test the market or create negotiation room. After all, even during the pandemic housing boomwhen home prices were surging18.7% of U.S. homes for sale in March 2021 still saw a price cut. That said, if the share of inventory receiving a price cut rises beyond typical seasonal patterns, it can suggest a market where homebuyers are gaining leverage. Conversely, if the share of inventory receiving a price cut falls beyond seasonality, it can indicate a market where home sellers are gaining leverage. Here’s how the percentage of U.S. active housing inventory receiving a price cut in March 2025 compared to the historical totals: March 2017: 25.6% March 2018: 26.6% March 2019: 26.4% March 2020: 22.8% March 2021: 18.7% March 2022: 21.3% March 2023: 29.4% March 2024: 31.7% March 2025: 33.9% How did ResiClub calculate this? We divided the number of U.S. homes for sale that received a price reduction in March by the total number of active U.S. home listings during that same month. The table below shows the raw data. (The Realtor.com data series we used for this analysis only goes back to July 2016.) Big picture: This data is just one more bit of evidence showing that the national housing markets supply-demand equilibrium has begun shifting in homebuyers’ favor ever since mortgage rates spiked in late spring 2022 and the pandemic housing boom fizzled out. Of course, this all varies significantly across the country. Some housing marketsparticularly in parts of the Midwest and Northeastremain relatively tight, with sellers still in control. Others markets have just shifted into balanced markets, while some pockets of the Sun Belt have turned into outright buyers markets.
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The 2025 Kentucky Derby is horse racing’s most exclusive starting gate. Twenty horses will post at Churchill Downs on May 3an elite field, even by exclusivity’s standards. Y Combinator admits less than 3% of startups. Fewer than 1% of those who apply to NASA become astronauts. Google famously hires less than 0.2% of applicants. Yet these standards look almost lax compared to the 0.11% of North American thoroughbreds that make the Kentucky Derby each year, as only 20 of the 17,146 thoroughbred foals eligible earn the honor of participating in the race. Here’s how the fortunate 20 get to Churchill Downs. A sophisticated global qualification system The Kentucky Derby is limited to 3-year-old thoroughbreds that qualify through a points system called the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” This system, implemented in 2013, transformed horse racing’s premier event from an earnings-based qualification into a data-driven meritocracy. There are three distinct roads to the Kentucky Derby. Internationally, the European-Middle East Road offers one invitation through seven qualifying races across England, Ireland, UAE, and France, while the Japan Road awards one invitation through four races. The North American Road fills the remaining 18 starting spots through a 36-race gauntlet divided into two phases. The Prep Season (SeptemberFebruary) features 20 races with modest point awards, while the high-stakes 16-race Championship Series (FebruaryApril) cranks up the pressure with escalating rewards. But not all points are created equal. The brilliance of this system lies in its gamified structure. Early prep races award a conservative 10-5-3-2-1 distribution among the top five finishers, while Championship Series races raise the stakes dramatically to a 50-25-15-10-5 split, then to a game-changing 100-50-25-15-10 for the final major preps. In Silicon Valley terms, these would be “rising stakes rounds,” forcing trainers to make strategic decisions about where and when to position their contenders for maximum return. For 2025, Churchill Downs fine-tuned its algorithm, adding the Virginia Derby as a qualifying race and implementing dynamic point scaling that reduces awards for smaller fieldsan anti-gaming mechanism to ensure equitable competition so there are no shortcuts to the derby. The result is a ruthlessly efficient funnel that winnows 17,146 eligible thoroughbreds down to just 20 elite qualifiersan acceptance rate that makes Harvard or MIT look like open enrollment. Closing the economic divide While most Kentucky Derby contenders emerge from million-dollar yearling sales and the larger stables of trainers like Bob Baffertwhose financial resources, connections to wealthy owners, and experience make him a derby mainstayracing’s most compelling narratives often feature horses from humbler origins. The ultimate underdog story belongs to Rich Strike, who in 2022 became the first claimed horse to win the Derby. Claiming raceswhere every entered horse is available for purchase at a listed pricerepresent racing’s blue-collar backbone. Trainer Eric Reed spotted potential in Rich Strike and claimed him for just $30,000 at Churchill Downs in 2021. Seven months later, this bargain-basement purchase stunned the racing world by winning the derby as an 80-1 longshot who wasn’t even in the field until another horse scratched the day before. The 2025 Derby features its own Cinderella story in Coal Battle, trained by 72-year-old Lonnie Briley, who has been training horses for 34 years without a single premier racing event starter. Purchased for $70,000, Coal Battle has already earned over $1 million by winning multiple prep races, including the Rebel Stakes. For Briley, who first visited Churchill Downs just three years ago with a horse that finished dead last, this represents the democratic promise at the heart of the Derbythat with the right horse, even the smallest stable can compete on racing’s biggest stage. A look at this year’s Kentucky Derby field Coal Battle is one of 20 thoroughbreds in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, which represents the various paths to Churchill Downs. Heres how each horse in this years field made it to the Run for the Roses: Burnham Square: From earning four points in the Holy Bull to capturing 100 in the Blue Grass Stakes (winning by a nose over East Avenue), Burnham Square ranks first on the Kentucky Derby points leader board with 130. Sandman: This $1.2 million purchase accumulated 129 points across multiple races, culminating in an impressive Arkansas Derby victory by 2.5 lengths over Publisher. Journalism: The current Derby favorite enters with a four-race winning streak, including the Santa Anita Derby. Rodriguez: Maximizing the Northeast corridor by winning the Wood Memorial for 100 points, this colt represents trainer Bob Baffert’s return to the Derby since 2021. Tiztastic: Converted a 100-point Louisiana Derby win into a prime position with 119 points, giving trainer Steve Asmussen (0-for-26 in the Derby with three runner-up finishes) another chance at his elusive first Derby victory. Tappan Street: Florida Derby champion (110 points) who will attempt to become just the fifth horse to win the Kentucky Derby after only three career starts, following Regret (1915), Big Brown (2008), Justify (2018), and Mage (2023). Sovereignty: Fountain of Youth winner who also finished second in the Florida Derby and totaled 110 points, Sovereignty gives Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, ruler of Dubai, another chance at his first Derby win after 12 previous attempts. Final Gambit: Jeff Ruby Steaks winner (100 points) who rallied from last to win by 3.5 lengths and will be making his first start on dirt in the Derby after previously racing on turf and synthetic surfaces. Coal Battle: The quintessential rags-to-riches narrative with 95 points on the leaderboard, led by 72-year-old trainer Lonnie Briley, who had never even entered a horse in a premier racing event before Coal Battle’s Rebel Stakes victory at 111 odds. Chunk of Gold: Consistent performer with 75 points who cost just $2,500 at auction and has never finished worse than second in four career starts, including runner-up in the Louisiana Derby. Citizen Bull: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who captured the 2-year-old championship and earned 71.25 points, attempting to become the first Juvenile winner to capture the Derby since Nyquist (2015-16). Owen Almighty: Tampa Bay Derby champion (65 points) owned by Dutch Bros Coffee Company cofounder Travis Boersma. East Avenue: Blue Grass Stakes runner-up (60 points) who narrowly missed victory by a nose, but whose sire (father), Medaglia d’Oro, finished fourth in his own Derby attempt in 2002. Publisher: Arkansas Derby runner-up (60 points) who will become just the 13th maiden (winless horse) to start in the Kentucky Derby since 1937. American Promise: Virginia Derby winner (55 points), capitalizing on the newly added qualification race with a 7.75-length victory and giving 89-year-old legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas his shot at a fifth Derby win. Flying Mohawk: The Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up (50 points), who is co-owned by former MLB All-Star outfielder Jayson Werth, will be making his first start on dirt after racing exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces. Grande: Wood Memorial runner-up (50 points) with just three career starts who will attempt to become the fifth horse to win the Derby with so few races, guided by three-time Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez. Built: Accumulated 45 points across multiple Fair Grounds preps, including a second in the Lecomte, third in the Risen Star, and fifth in the Louisiana Derby. Luxor Café: The son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is the Japan Road qualifier and ships in on a four-race winning streak. Admire Daytona: Europe-Middle East Road qualifier who won the UAE Derby by a nose and previously was beaten twice by fellow Derby contender Luxor Café. The fastest two minutes in sports For many trainers, the Kentucky Derby is truly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Since only 3-year-old thoroughbreds are eligible, unless you’re a Baffert-level trainer with seemingly endless resources and a deep stable, there are no second chances. This brutal math explains why veterans like Briley wait decades for their moment, while elite trainers seem to have regular seats at racing’s most exclusive table. It’s why Coal Battle’s presence in the starting gate represents both a statistical anomaly and the enduring dream that keeps trainers like him in the game for decades, hoping for that one special thoroughbred who defies the 0.11% odds. Coal Battle is currently a 201 underdog to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Journalism is the 31 favorite, followed by Sandman (81) and Sovereignty (81). But in the world’s most exclusive starting gate, each thoroughbred in the 20-horse field has already beaten the longest odds just by showing up.
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When artist Adam Pendleton was growing up in Richmond, Virginia, he started his own newspaper that he delivered to the residents at a nursing home in his town. I wanted to be a creative person functioning in the world, he says. I wanted to be an artist. Over the years, that inclination took various forms: a t-shirt business (which he now laughs that, as a teen, he saw as a fashion line), script-writing, musical theater, original poetry. I realize now it was very much about having an idea and manifesting itthat is creativity, says Pendleton, whose growing body of work has continuously redefined contemporary American painting. In that way, youre a perpetual problem solver. Now, years later, the sorts of problems Pendleton finds himself wrestling with are far more esoteric, and rooted to big questions around the human experience in a distracted and noisy world. These themes are mirrored in his paintings which are layered with paint, spray paint, ink and watercolor. They include stenciled fragments of text and geometric shapes, and are then photographed and screenprinted. This blend of disciplines, materials and forms, Pendleton has said, is a representation of the cacophony of contemporary experience. His new solo show, Adam Pendleton: Love, Queen, opened April 4 at the Hirshhorn Museum in Washington, D.C. and runs until January 3, 2027. The show includes Black Dada, Days, WE ARE NOT, as well as new composition and movement paintings. [Photo: Jason Schmidt] I read all of the books my mom had in the house. I was reading Sylvia Plath, and I think The Bell Jar was the first time I got more invested in, What is the life of an artist like? The Jackson Pollock biopic came out and I remember being like, Wow! I had very little interest in the typical adolescent activities: I didnt want to go to parties; I didnt want a drivers license. I realize now, I was trying to eliminate things that could be a distraction from what I had identified as my purpose in life. I went to a private prep school in Virginia where my mom taught. I made a change and went to this outdoor school in North Carolina called The Outdoor Academy. I wanted to do something different. That decision absolutely changed my life. I dont know where I would be without that kind of swervethat serendipitous encounter with this place. It taught me there are alternative ways of being and thinking and seeing the world, particularly in regards to education. Youd be in math class, and then youd go rock climbing or white water canoeing. We were living in the world. We were using our bodies. We were really living. I graduated high school two years early, and when I was 16, I went to Italy to continue my art education. From that age on, I have lived. [Photo: Peio Erroteta] I organize myself around what I call ‘moments of consequence.’ Im looking at the arch of time over a specific periodsix months or 12 months, maybe a little longer. I look at the most important things that will happen during that period and I make sure that at any given moment during the day from the time I wake up to the time I go to bed Im giving some sort of energetic or physical or intellectual commitment or dedicated time to said moment of consequence. That is a way of moving through the world, but also being anchored at any given moment to this concrete sense of what you need to be focused on. [Photo: Andy Romer] Im a big believer that you can organize your mind. Part of organizing your mind is using your full mental capacity or bandwidth. For example, even while Im talking to you, I can still be thinking about the painting I want to make, or the drawings I want to work on, or the text I need to edit. Its the internal initiative I need to nurture. For me, its like visual mapping. There is noise around visual mapping: language, ideas, desires or urges. You have to organize them and attach those impulses to the correct spaces in your mind. I accept moments. If Im getting ready for a big exhibition, I say to myself, Im not going to paint for the next seven days. Its just not going to happen. Its better to be realistic about it than to fight it and be frustrated. Its an energetic drain. [Photo: Peio Erroteta] I like the flow of constant work. I always say dont take a vacation. I personally think its better to be in the flow and not fight it. To say, Im going to step otside of it and go sit on a beach with a romance novel for three days. I have never had that compulsion. My compulsion is for projects and ideas and tackling them, figuring it out, getting it done. I get anxious when people say, Just relax and dont do anything. I dont find that relaxing. Rest is important, but the kind of rest I’m talking about is sleep. I think the worst habit people have these days is sleeping with their phones next to their heads. A very good ritual I have that makes a huge difference: When I go to sleep, I leave my phone downstairs. It makes a huge difference, and it allows you to be very present in that period of going to sleep. [Photo: Andy Romer] I am very much about space and what you do in those spaces. There are certain things I would do at home that Id never do in the office. I wont have phone conversations in my painting studio. Its just not the space for that. I organize my tasks or responsibilitiesin the same way I talk about a mental map, I have a very physical map. Its about organizing yourself in a way that encourages good habits. Im very bad under pressure. Im not the kind of person that can study for a test the night before. I have to have a lot of prep and strategy. I nurture ideas for a very long time before I execute. Sometimes when you need to pivot and change something, it can take months or years to position yourself to be ready or able to tackle it. There are some things that I am just not that curious about. But, I think its important to be curious about as much as you possibly can be. If I see a line outside the door Im not going to stand in the line, but I will take a picture of the place and want to learn about it. I saw an Irish Soda Bread shop when I was on East 7th Street. Why is there a line here? I take a picture of menus of restaurants I will probably never go into. I walk around my neighborhood to see whats busy at different times. I relate that curiosity back to my work. Its why I paint and what I do. Its not formulaic in any way. My work is about deep visual curiosity that extends to the world around me in every way. [Photo: Peio Erroteta] I like absorbing things and making sense of things. I like processing. I need a way to move through the world that is poetic, soulful, and intentional. That nurtures my interior life and its potential in the ways it manifests itself in the world. Painting is that. It’s a mechanism, a mode, a tool. Its the poetics of being and moving through and understanding and reflecting on the world. Its my greatest gift. It is the most articulate and inarticulate act or function that I engage in. When people think about mentors, they try to think about one or two people. Thats really counter-productive. Its better to have a well of inspiration, rather than one single heroic figure. I have so many, some that are alive and some who are dead. Some who I will never know. Jason Moran. Joan Jonas. Adrian Piper. Ishmael Houston-Jones. Ruby Nell Sales. John Coltrane. Ella Fitzgerald. June Jordan. David Chipperfield. Hiroshi Sugimoto. I could keep listing names. I want to be inspired by the world around me. I want a big capacious, generous, and generative community around me and also in my head.
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Getting your tax refund is the only fun part of filing your taxes every yearwhich can make it especially galling when Uncle Sam takes his sweet time sending your money. Waiting for a refund in 2025 has some added stress, considering the recent IRS layoffs, the departments plans for a 25% reduction in force, and the heartburn-inducing game of acting director musical chairs that played out during this years tax season. With all of that turmoil in the IRS, any taxpayer still waiting on a refund may worry their tax return got lost in the shuffle. The good news is that the IRS is still processing tax returns and refunds at a steady clip, even with a reduced workforce. Additionally, this department offers taxpayers a number of resources to soothe your worries about the status of your refund. Heres what you need to know about receiving your tax refund this year if it still hasnt hit your bank account. Believe it or not, tax refunds are on track If youve waited more than the 21 calendar days the IRS claims it takes to process your refund, you can be excused for assuming the DOGE cuts are responsible for the delay. But the IRS filing season statistics tell a different story. Despite the reduced workforce, the IRS is processing returns and refunds at a similar rate to last year. As of April 11, 2025, the IRS has processed 74,858,000 refunds for the 2025 tax seasona 0.2% increase compared to the 74,685,000 refunds processed as of the same time frame in 2024. Its also instructive to look at last years statistics from later in the tax season. The 2024 refunds processed by mid-April last year represented 71.2% of all refunds for the calendar year. That means its not unusual for more than a quarter of taxpayers to still be refund-less at this point in the tax season. Additionally, by May 10, 2024, nearly 90% of refunds had been processed for the yearwhich correlates pretty well to the nearly 92% of taxpayers who file on time. The remaining refunds paid out after mid-May 2024 were generally owed to late filers who got an extension. If you filed your taxes as of the April 15 deadline, youll probably receive your owed refund by mid-May at the latest. So is there a tax refund delay? While the beleaguered IRS is working full steam ahead under difficult circumstances, there are several global and individual reasons why you may not have received your refund: Filing volume: The volume of tax returns received by the IRS goes up steeply the closer it gets to April 15. The increased filing volume creates a bottleneck for IRS workers, which can delay your refund. Paper filing: Uncle Sam prefers e-filing, and taxpayers who file a paper return may have to wait four or more weeks to receive their refunds. Refund via check: If you requested a paper check instead of ACH deposit, that can also delay your refund. Tax credits: If you claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Child Tax Credit, that can delay your refund. Errors: An error on your return can delay your refund. Amended return: Filing an amended return can also cause your refund to take longer to process. Wheres my refund? One of the best updates to modern taxation is the IRS Wheres My Refund? tool, which allows you to check the status of your refund. Typically, you can use this tool within 24 hours of e-filing your current-year tax return. To check your refund status, you will need your Social Security number (or individual taxpayer ID number, or ITIN), your filing status, and the exact amount of your refund. There are three potential refund statuses: Return Received: This status indicates the IRS has received your tax return and is currently processing it. Refund Approved: This status shows that your refund has been approved and will be submitted as of the date listed. Refund Sent: This status indicates that the IRS has sent the refund either via ACH or paper check through the mail. ACH could take up to five days to appear in your bank account, and a paper check could take several weeks to show up in your mailbox. When to pick up the phone Calling the IRS for help is about as appealing as a colonoscopy, especially if you expect the wait time for reaching a real live human being to rival the run time for Wickedthe directors cut. However, you may need to reach out to the IRS by phone if there is no change to the refund status listed on the Wheres My Refund? tool after 21 calendar days or if the tool asks you to contact the IRS. Just remember that the IRS cant answer questions about your delayed refund until youve hit the 21-day mark. If youre ready to call the Taxpayer Assistance hotline, you can reach it at 800-829-1040 from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time. The IRS is still working as designedfor now The 2025 tax season may seem more fraught than usual, but the IRS is still processing about the same number of returns and refunds as it has in past years. The delay on your refund may be related to when or how you filed your taxes, whether you took any tax credits, or if there is an error on your return. You can check the status of your refund using the online Wheres My Refund? tool, and give the IRS a ring if the status hasnt changed after 21 days. Just remember that if you do need to call, the IRS worker who answers the phone is almost definitely having a worse tax season than you are.
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E-Commerce
Every now and then, you run into a tool that truly wows you. Its rareespecially nowadays, when everyone and their cousin is coming out with overhyped AI-centric codswallop thats almost always more impressive on paper than in practice. And that, if you ask me, makes it all the more satisfying when you track down a tool that really, truly impresses. My friend, today is one of those days. Prepare to have your mind blown. Be the first to find all sorts of little-known tech treasures with my free Cool Tools newsletter from The Intelligence. One useful new discovery in your inbox every Wednesday! Your instant audio enhancer Our tool for today comes from a company youve almost certainly heard of. But Id be willing to wager you didnt know it offered this off-the-beaten-path treasure. The gem of which we speak is a simple little web app called, fittingly, Enhance Speechby Adobe. Enhance Speech lets you upload any audio recording of someone speaking. Its technically designed for podcasters, but it could be useful for practically anythinga spoken memo, a recorded conversation, even a recorded phone call. The site takes any recording you feed it and instantly improves its audio qualityremoving background noise and enhancing the sound of the speaking so its crisp, clear, and easy as can be to hear, no matter how sloppily or in what kind of environment it was recorded. Adobes Enhance Speech site couldnt be much simpler or easier to use. Itll take you about two minutes to perform an enhancement. And you dont need to create an account or anything: Just open up the Adobe Enhance Speech site in any browser, on any device in front of you. Click or tap the Choose Files buttonor drag and drop an audio file directly from your device onto the page, if youre using a computer. Enhance Speech works with most common audio file formats, including WAV, MP3, AAC, FLAC, and M4A. In a matter of moments, the site will serve up an enhanced version of your recording that you can either play on the page or download. You can play your enhanced audio right on the site or download it with one quick click. You can also just check out the built-in sample on the sites main page to see how impressive of a difference its enhancements make. It really is something. Enhance Speech is entirely web-basedno downloads or installations required. Its free to use with recordings up to 30 minutes in length and 500MB in size, with a one-hour-per-day upload limit. You can lift those limits and unlock a variety of advanced features with a premium plan, but that absolutely isnt necessary for the services core featuresand the limits are plenty generous for most casual use. Enhance Speech follows Adobes standard privacy policy, which ensures no personal data is ever shared or used in any eyebrow-raising way. Ready for more productivity-boosting goodness? Check out my free Cool Tools newsletter for an instant introduction to an audio app thatll tune up your days in delightful waysand a new off-the-beaten-path gem in your inbox every Wednesday!
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