Retirement planning is typically framed around full-time employment. 401(k)s or pension plans are attractive benefits for people in the corporate world. Those people can open their monthly statements and watch their retirement accounts grow steadily over time.
But for the 16.8 million people in the U.S. who are self-employed (myself included), retirement planning looks different. Over the past two years, 1.4 million people have turned to self-employment. Whether thats due to layoffs, voluntary quitting, or other reasons, the number is steadily increasingand there arent a lot of resources available for people trying to figure out retirement planning on their own.
While retirement is not something self-employed people can ignore, the whole concept of ending work on a certain date and drawing money from your retirement accounts may not be what some people have in mind.
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The traditional retirement model doesnt apply
If youre self-employed, you know a lot of factors can make retirement savings tricky. Your income is irregular, you forego a 401(k) plans employer match, and the process to make contributions might be more manual.
When I first became self-employed a few years ago, retirement was something I started thinking about in the first year. However, I also spent more than 15 years working in the banking industry, so it was no surprise that finances were on my mind. I had to research a solo 401(k), figure out how to open the account, and start making contributions when I could.
But as Ive watched my little self-employed 401(k) grow over the years, Ive also wondered: Am I even working toward the same retirement goal I had when I was working a corporate job? Or have my financial needs in retirement changed?
Redefining a retirement lifestyle
Ive known many people in my life who have literally counted the days until retirement. They couldnt wait to stop working.
By contrast, many self-employed people love their workespecially creatives. Its an integral part of their identities. Im a freelance writer, so does retirement mean I . . . stop writing? Its hard to imagine.
Retirement feels like a fuzzy concept. As self-employed people look into the future, retirement might look less like a full stop and more like a slow down or akin to selective work. It may include passion projects, consulting, or mentoringbut not giving up work altogether.
With this in mind, the retirement calculation is different. Rather than assuming you have zero income during retirement, you instead consider that youd have less income.
Planning for an undefined ending
You wont have an office retirement party. No one will give you an engraved watch or clock celebrating your years of service with a company. (But, by all means, get yourself a gift!)
Without a particular end date in mind, think instead of how you might step backand at what age? Its important to intentionally plan what you want your next chapters to look like.
Retirement for the self-employed requires more self-direction, but you also get to define your own path. You already did that once, when you started your own business. You can do that again as you plan for retirement.
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Back in 2023, social media management platform Buffer wrote a blog post about how it had received 1,518 applicants for a single role on its marketing team.
While thats a jaw-dropping number, its a common occurrence for companies with well-paying jobs that boast a great company culture. In the present job market, many job seekers are discouraged knowing theyre competing against hundreds (if not thousands) of applicants.
For some roles, a résumé will only get you so far. A personal brand helps you stand out before you ever apply for a job, making the application process tip in your favor.
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You can break out of the résumé mold
Résumés often have very prescriptive formats. Youve probably heard the common advice: Keep it to one page, highlight your accomplishments, make it easy to read. These days, résumés are often fed directly into an applicant tracking systemso any creativity is stripped, and a résumé reviewer only sees text.
Yet many companies have a required field on their applications: the URL of your LinkedIn profile.
This is where you can shine. Anyone can have a polished headshot, colorful banner, and interesting headline. But you can set yourself apart with a compelling About section, links to projects in the Featured section, and recommendations from former colleagues.
Your LinkedIn profile is like your résumé with a microphone. Instead of passively waiting for someone to review your work, youre amplifying it.
Of course, to do this, you need to create content.
Start with a small, manageable posting schedule
LinkedIn can be a very intimidating place, especially if youve never shared content there before. The feed is full of people who are Excited to announce a new job or want to tell you how to “10x your career.” One Gen Z user referred to LinkedIn as the overachievers Facebook in an article for the New York Post.
Creating content is a way to showcase your personality in a way that your résumé and profile cant. You dont have to set out to be an influencer, but you can share relevant experiences from your careerand even a peek into your personal interests (if youre comfortable doing so).
I started with one post per week, sharing anything work-related that popped into my head. I had no particular goal in mind, but recognized that LinkedIn was the platform where work and opportunities happen. Eventually, I started becoming more strategic and shared content that showcased my expertise and personality, but not until my weekly writing habit was well-established.
You can bypass gatekeepers and make connections
A personal brand will open doors in a way that a résumé wont. In an intense job market, you need anything and everything that distinguishes you from other job seekers.
With a personal brand, you can make connections with potential hiring managers and rely on those connections when applying for a job. Do this before you apply. Start connecting with people in your industry or at companies youd like to work for. Engage with them and continue posting content.
When a role opens up, you can apply and also send a DM saying: Hey! Just wanted to let you know that I applied for XYZ role. Really excited about the opportunity. It might move your résumé to the top of the pile.
Significant attention
A personal brand might also bring offers directly to youwithout needing to apply. You might catch the attention of hiring managers or recruiters who will reach out with potential opportunities. Im self-employed, so my experience isnt the same as a traditional job seeker. Still, I can attest that I get a significant amount of attention on LinkedIn after several years of building a personal brand. Connections have brought opportunities my way that I would not have had otherwise. Because of my content, people know who I am, understand what I do, and trust that my personal brand matches my work ethic.
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Adam Kucharski is a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and an award-winning science writer. His book, The Rules of Contagion, was a Book of the Year in The Times, Guardian, and Financial Times. A mathematician by training, his work on global outbreaks has included Ebola, Zika, and COVID. He has advised multiple governments and health agencies. His writing has appeared in Wired, Observer, and Financial Times, among other outlets, and he has contributed to several documentaries, including BBC’s Horizon.
Whats the big idea?
In all arenas of life, there is an endless hunt to find certainty and establish proof. We dont always have the luxury of being sure, and many situations demand decisions be made even when there is insufficient evidence to choose confidently. Every fieldfrom mathematics and tech to law and medicinehas its own methods for proving truth, and what to do when it is out of reach. Professionally and personally, it is important to understand what constitutes proof and how to proceed when facts falter.
Below, Adam shares five key insights from his new book, Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty. Listen to the audio versionread by Adam himselfin the Next Big Idea App.
1. It is dangerous to assume something is self-evident.
In the first draft of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, the Founding Fathers wrote that we hold these truths to be sacred and undeniable, that all men are created equal. But shortly before it was finalized, Benjamin Franklin crossed out the words sacred and undeniable, because they implied divine authority. Instead, he replaced them with the famous line, We hold these truths to be self-evident. The term self-evident was borrowed from mathematicsspecifically from Greek geometry. The idea was that there could be a universal truth about equality on which a society could be built.
This idea of self-evident, universal truths had shaped mathematics for millennia. But the assumption ended up causing a lot of problems, both in politics and mathematics. In the 19th century, mathematicians started to notice that certain theorems that had been declared intuitively obvious didnt hold up when we considered things that were infinitely large or infinitely small. It seemed self-evident didnt always mean well-evidenced.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., supporters of slavery were denying what Abraham Lincoln called the national axioms of equality. In the 1850s, Lincoln (himself a keen amateur mathematician) increasingly came to think of equality as a proposition rather than a self-evident truth. It was something that would need to be proven together as a country. Similarly, mathematicians during this period would move away from assumptions that things were obvious and instead work to find sturdier ground.
2. In practice, proof means balancing too much belief and too much skepticism.
If we want to get closer to the truth, there are two errors we must avoid: we dont want to believe things that are false, and we dont want to discount things that are true. Its a challenge that comes up throughout life. But where should we set the bar for evidence? If were overly skeptical and set it too high, well ignore valid claims. But if we set the bar too low, well end up accepting many things that arent true.
In the 1760s, the English legal scholar William Blackstone argued that we should work particularly hard to avoid wrongful convictions. As he put it: It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer. Benjamin Franklin would later be even more cautious. He suggested that it is better 100 guilty persons should escape than that one innocent person should suffer.
We dont want to believe things that are false, and we dont want to discount things that are true.
But not all societies have agreed with this balance. Some communist regimes in the 20th century declared it better to kill a hundred innocent people than let one truly guilty person walk free.
Science and medicine have also developed their own traditions around setting the bar for evidence. Clinical trials are typically designed in a way that penalizes a false positive four times more than a false negative. In other words, we dont want to say a treatment doesnt work when it does, but we really dont want to conclude it works when it doesnt.
This ability to converge on a shared reality, even if occasionally flawed, is fundamental for science and medicine. Its also an essential component of democracy and justice. Rather than embracing or shunning everything we see, we must find ways to balance the risk that comes with trusting something to be true.
3. Life is full of weak evidence problems.
Science is dedicated to generating results that we can have high confidence in. But often in life, we must make choices without the luxury of extremely strong evidence. We cant, as some early statisticians did, simply remain on the fence if were not confident either way. Whether were sitting on a jury or in a boardroom, we face situations where a decision must be made regardless.
This is known as the weak evidence problem. For example, it might be very unlikely that a death is just a coincidence. But it also might be very unlikely that a certain person is a murderer. Legal cases are often decided on the basis that weak evidence in favor of the prosecution is more convincing than weak evidence for the defendant.
Unfortunately, it can be easy to misinterpret weak evidence. A prominent example is the prosecutors fallacy. This is a situation where people assume that if its very unlikely a particular set of events occurred purely by coincidence, that must mean the defendant is very unlikely to be innocent. But to work out the probability of innocence, we cant just focus on the chances of a coincidence. What really matters is whether a guilty explanation is more likely than an innocent one. To navigate lawand lifewe must often choose between unlikely explanations, rather than waiting for certainty.
4. Predictions are easier than taking action.
If we spot a pattern in data, it can help us make predictions. If ice cream sales increase next month, its reasonable to predict that heatstroke cases will too. These kinds of patterns can be useful if we want to make predictions, but theyre less useful if we want to intervene in some way. The correlation in the data doesnt mean that ice cream causes heatstroke, and crucially, it doesnt tell us how to prevent further illness.
Often in life, prediction isnt what we really care about.
In science, many problems are framed as prediction tasks because, fundamentally, its easier than untangling cause and effect. In the field of social psychology, researchers use data to try to predict relationship outcomes. In the world of justice, courts use algorithms to predict whether someone will reoffend. But often in life, prediction isnt what we really care about. Whether were talking about relationships or crimes, we dont just want to know what i likely to happenwe want to know why it happened and what we can do about it. In short, we need to get at the causes of what were seeing, rather than settling for predictions.
5. Technology is changing our concept of proof.
In 1976, two mathematicians announced the first-ever computer-aided proof. Their discovery meant that, for the first time in history, the mathematical community had to accept a major theorem that they could not verify by hand.
However, not everyone initially believed the proof. Maybe the computer had made an error somewhere? Suddenly, mathematicians no longer had total intellectual control; they had to trust a machine. But then something curious happened. While older researchers had been skeptical, younger mathematicians took the opposite view. Why would they trust hundreds of pages of handwritten and hand-checked calculations? Surely a computer would be more accurate, right?
Technology is challenging how we view science and proof. In 2024, we saw the AI algorithm AlphaFold make a Nobel Prize-winning discovery in biology. AlphaFold can predict protein structures and their interactions in a way that humans would never have been able to. But these predictions dont necessarily come with traditional biological understanding.
Among many scientists, Ive noticed a sense of loss when it comes to AI. For people trained in theory and explanation, crunching possibilities with a machine doesnt feel like familiar science. It may even feel like cheating or a placeholder for a better, neater solution that weve yet to find. And yet, there is also an acceptance that this is a valuable new route to knowledge, and the fresh ideas and discoveries it can bring.
This article originally appeared in Next Big Idea Club magazine and is reprinted with permission.
Whether youre streaming a show, paying bills online or sending an email, each of these actions relies on computer programs that run behind the scenes. The process of writing computer programs is known as coding. Until recently, most computer code was written, at least originally, by human beings. But with the advent of generative artificial intelligence, that has begun to change.
Just as you can ask ChatGPT to spin up a recipe for a favorite dish or write a sonnet in the style of Lord Byron, now you can ask generative AI tools to write computer code for you. Andrej Karpathy, an OpenAI co-founder who previously led AI efforts at Tesla, recently termed this vibe coding.
For complete beginners or nontechnical dreamers, writing code based on vibesfeelings rather than explicitly defined informationcould feel like a superpower. You dont need to master programming languages or complex data structures. A simple natural language prompt will do the trick.
How it works
Vibe coding leans on standard patterns of technical language, which AI systems use to piece together original code from their training data. Any beginner can use an AI assistant such as GitHub Copilot or Cursor Chat, put in a few prompts, and let the system get to work. Heres an example:
Create a lively and interactive visual experience that reacts to music, user interaction, or real-time data. Your animation should include smooth transitions and colorful and lively visuals with an engaging flow in the experience. The animation should feel organic and responsive to the music, user interaction, or live data and facilitate an experience that is immersive and captivating. Complete this project using JavaScript or React, and allow for easy customization to set the mood for other experiences.
But AI tools do this without any real grasp of specific rules, edge cases, or security requirements for the software in question. This is a far cry from the processes behind developing production-grade software, which must balance trade-offs between product requirements, speed, scalability, sustainability, and security. Skilled engineers write and review the code, run tests, and establish safety barriers before going live.
But while the lack of a structured process saves time and lowers the skills required to code, there are trade-offs. With vibe coding, most of these stress-testing practices go out the window, leaving systems vulnerable to malicious attacks and leaks of personal data.
And theres no easy fix: If you dont understand everyor anyline of code that your AI agent writes, you cant repair the code when it breaks. Or worse, as some experts have pointed out, you wont notice when its silently failing.
The AI itself is not equipped to carry out this analysis either. It recognizes what working code usually looks like, but it cannot necessarily diagnose or fix deeper problems that the code might cause or exacerbate.
Why it matters
Vibe coding could be just a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon that will fizzle before long, but it may also find deeper applications with seasoned programmers. The practice could help skilled software engineers and developers more quickly turn an idea into a viable prototype. It could also enable novice programmers or even amateur coders to experience the power of AI, perhaps motivating them to pursue the discipline more deeply.
Vibe coding also may signal a shift that could make natural language a more viable tool for developing some computer programs. If so, it would echo early website editing systems known as WYSIWYG editors that promised designers what you see is what you get, or drag-and-drop website builders that made it easy for anyone with basic computer skills to launch a blog.
For now, I dont believe that vibe coding will replace experienced software engineers, developers, or computer scientists. The discipline and the art are much more nuanced than what AI can handle, and the risks of passing off vibe code as legitimate software are too great.
But as AI models improve and become more adept at incorporating context and accounting for risk, practices like vibe coding might cause the boundary between AI and human programmer to blur further.
Chetan Jaiswal is an associate professor of computer science at Quinnipiac University.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Like a good pair of Basquiat Crocs, there are innumerable bad ways to license an artists work. So when Airstream looked to partner up on a project with the Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation, the aluminum-clad trailer brand could have just printed one of the architect’s famous patterns on a limited run of its vehicles and called it a day. It probably would have even sold well. But that is decidedly what Bob Wheeler, Airstreams president and CEO, did not want to do.
We said, All right, let’s make sure that everything has a purpose and a functionthat way it’s not just a pastiche, or some kind of lame attempt to mimic something, Wheeler recalls. We didn’t want it to seem overdone or kitschy.
Instead, the brand embarked on a multiyear collaboration with the experts at Wrights Taliesin West home and studio in Scottsdale, Arizona, and today the two are rolling out the 28-foot Airstream Frank Lloyd Wright Usonian Limited Edition Travel Trailer. With just 200 numbered vehicles that retail for $184,900 on offer, youlike memight not be able to afford one at the moment, but they just might also restore your faith in the art of the artist collab at large.
[Photo: Airstream]
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER
Wheeler has a passion for midcentury design (as you might expect of Airstreams CEO), so it tracks that hed be a natural fan of Wrights organic architecture.
Honestly, this has been a dream of mine for the last 20 years, which is about as long as I’ve been president of Airstream, he says. Why are Wrights designs so celebrated today? It’s because they’re timeless. I think there are values there that incentivize someone to buy an Airstream that overlap in some meaningful ways.
Though Wright and Airstream founder Wally Byam were active at the same time and likely shared some of the same design fan base, theres no record of them ever meeting. But a collaboration between the two ultimately proved inevitable when Wheeler reached out to Wrights foundation in 2022. Foundation historian Sally Russell says her team wasnt initially sure how robust a joint project could be. They eventually toured the Airstream factory in Ohio where the trailers are handmade using 3,000 rivets over the course of 350 hours, and saw how much customization was truly possible. Then she realized that it could be a great showcase of Wrights work.
Beyond an Airstreams signature aluminum exterior, Wheeler says the trailer is essentially a blank canvas. And that’s where we can really flex some design muscle and allow others to do so.
Russell says the foundation first explored whether to make the trailer feel like an adaptation of a specific Frank Lloyd Wright home. The answer to that was no, she says. We didn’t want to try to re-create the Rosenbaum House and shove it into the size of a trailer. It didn’t make sense, because Frank Lloyd Wright certainly designed for each of his individual projectshe created something new, something that expressed the individual forms of the project, the needs of the client. So there was a great awareness of wanting to continue that legacy through the work that we did on the trailer.
The two teams ultimately homed in on the concept of Usonian design, a style that aimed to democratize design via small, affordable homes with a focus on efficient floor plans, functionality, and modularity.
In other words: an ideal fit for an Airstream.
[Photo: Airstream]
COLLAPSIBLE CHAIRS AND CLERESTORY WINDOWS
When you approach the trailer, the connection to Wright is immediate on the custom front door featuring the Gordon leaf pattern, which the architect commissioned his apprentice Eugene Masselink to design in 1956. Its a tip of the hat to nature, presumably an Airstreamers destination, and can be found subtly throughout the trailer in elements like sconces and cabinet pullsbut not too much, per the design mission at the outset. (At one point we had a lot more of that Gordon leaf in there, Wheeler notes. We dialed that way back.)
With the push of a button, the bench seating converts into a king-size bedone of Wheelers favorite elements. It is the largest bed in any Airstream, and is a first for the company, he says.
[Photo: Airstream]
Another convertible element, in line with that focus on modularity, is the living space at the front of the trailer. Here, a dining table, desk, and seating inspired by the slant-back chairs that Wright used throughout his career collapse into a wall cabinet. Wheeler says Airstream used to deploy clever featres like this in the midcentury era, before modern preferences trended toward built-in furniture. So in some ways, this is a bit of a flashback to an earlier design in the 50s, which is appropriate.
The teams also honored Wrights focus on natural light, relocating Airstreams usual overhead storage in favor of clerestory windows, which are prominent in Usonian homes. Meanwhile, the overall color palette comes from a 1955 Wright-curated Martin-Senour paint line. Russell says the team selected it for its harmonious blend with the natural settings where the trailer is likely headed, featuring ocher, red, and turquoise.
Ultimately, It’s like a Frank Lloyd Wright home, where you walk into it, and it’s a completely different experience from any other building, Russell says. I hope that he would be very happy to see that design legacy continue, because he certainly did that with his own fellowship and the apprentices that he worked with.
[Photo: Airstream]
USONIAN LIFE
Starting today, the limited-edition, numbered trailers will be available for order at Airstream dealerships. Wheeler says the company was originally going to release just 100 of them, but got so much positive feedback from dealers and others that they doubled the run.
On the whole, the collaboration comes in the wake of a boom time for Airstream, which is owned by Thor Industries. Airstream experienced a surge during the pandemic, resulting in a 22% jump in sales in 2021 as people embraced remote work or realigned their relationship to the world.
We’ve come back to earth now, and now we’re much more tied to actual market retail rates, which is what we know, Wheeler says.
In its third-quarter financials, Thor reported $2.89 billion in revenue (up 3.3% from previous year). While the company declined to provide Airstream-specific numbers, its overall North American towable RV division is up 9.1% from the same period in 2024.
But theres a problem afoot: The current administrations tariffs, which Wheeler says made settling on the price for the Frank Lloyd Wright collaboration tricky. He adds that the company is struggling with shortages caused by the disruption in the supply chain, and high interest rates are also a problem.
[Photo: Airstream]
Look, we’re 94 years old, he says. We’ve been through more of these cycles than we can count, so we’re fine, and we’ll continue to trade on authenticity, quality, great service and support, a great dealer network, and a brand that really has become part of the fabric of the U.S. traveling adventure.
A Broadway play is coming to your living room live via cable television for the first time ever. This historic moment takes place tonight (Saturday, June 7, 2025) at 7 p.m. ETjust one day before the 78th Tony Awards. Grab some snacks and settle in for Good Night, and Good Luck, co-written by George Clooney and Grant Heslov and directed by David Cromer.
Although this event is being pitched as a TV first, streaming service BroadwayHD was technically the first to livestream a Broadway show, with the musical She Loves Me in 2016but we digress.
Here’s what to know about Good Night, and Good Luck, and how to watch it live.
What is “Good Night, and Good Luck” about?
Good Night, and Good Luck tells the story of respected CBS journalist Edward R. Murrow and his quest to hold Senator Joseph McCarthy accountable for his actions during the 1950s Red Scare. It is based on the 2005 film of the same name. This time around, George Clooney portrays Murrow and is making his Broadway debut.
What do the critics say?
Good Night, and Good Luck received mostly positive reviews.
Varietys Frank Rizzo praised its seriousness of purpose that is again dramatically stark, solidly documented, and ultimately chilling. The Hollywood Reporters David Rooney mused that the drama at times seems almost as educational as it is theatrical.
Both believe the ending might have been too heavy-handed and wanted more character development for the supporting characters.
Time Outs Adam Feldman did not mince words, stating that the play is too similar to the movie. It is well designed and full of fine actors doing their jobs. Its subject is timely and its message is on point, and theres no good reason to see it, he quipped.
The American Theatre Wing and the Broadway League, the organizations behind the Tony Awards, honored the production with five nominations. This includes one for Clooneys leading performance.
The play is a major commercial success, becoming the highest-grossing play in Broadway history. On the way to that title, it repeatedly grossed more than $4 million in a single week. These numbers are partly because tickets range from $176 for obstructed views to $799 for the best seats.
Why tell this story now?
Clooney and Heslov wrote the 2005 screenplay as a response to the United States actions in the Iraq War. Unfortunately, the universal themes of speaking truth to power are more relevant now than ever.
I think it’s a story that you can keep telling over and over,” Heslov told CBS’s 60 Minutes. “I don’t think it will ever thematically get old.”
They chose to adapt the story for the stage because of the Trump administration’s actions to discredit the media. While the president laments so-called fake news, journalists play an important role in educating the public and keeping public officials honest.
“When the other three estates fail, when the judiciary and the executive and the legislative branches fail us, the fourth estate has to succeed,” Clooney added during the 60 Minutes interview.
He went on to say that a recent ABC News settlement with the Trump administration was scary. In a similar vein, CBS is trying to get a $20 billion lawsuit that claims 60 Minutes committed election interference dismissed.
Additionally, Trump continues to cherry-pick which outlets get access to him while attempting to defund news organizations such as NPR.
We’re seeing this idea of using government to scare or fine, or use corporations to make journalists smaller, Clooney explained.
Clooney’s father, Nick Clooney, was a respected broadcast journalist. The younger Clooney followed in his fathers political-party footsteps and is a lifelong Democrat.
How can I watch or stream the Broadway play live?
Because this story is so personal to Clooney, he is doing his part to bring the shows important and timely message to an even wider audience beyond the Big Apple. He partnered with CNN to accomplish this.
Thanks to 20 cameras and 14 camera operators, audiences around the world can feel like they are in the room where it happened.
I cant tell you how exciting it is to do something thats never been done. CNN is the perfect place to bring this story of courage to so many more people than we could have ever hoped. Live TV. No net. Buckle up everyone, Clooney stated in a press release.
Before the metaphorical curtain rises, CNN’s Pamela Brown will host a pre-show outside of the Winter Garden Theatre, beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET.
The play will begin at 7 p.m. ET and runs an hour and 40 minutes, with no intermission. After the play, CNN’s Anderson Cooper will host a special, discussing the current state of journalism. He will be joined by a slew of notable guests including Connie Chung and Marvin Kalb.
Traditional cable subscribers can watch the pre-show, play, and post-show discussion on CNN and CNN International.
Cord-cutters can stream the theatrical experience on CNN.com/GoodNightGoodLuck and do not need a cable login. It will also be available on HBO Max at all subscription levels.
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter.
When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings could suggest a market that is heating up.
Generally speaking, local housing markets where active inventory has jumped above pre-pandemic 2019 levels have experienced softer home price growth (or outright price declines) over the past 36 months. Conversely, local housing markets where active inventory remains far below pre-pandemic 2019 levels have, generally speaking, experienced more resilient home price growth over the past 36 months.
Where is inventory heading into summer? As ResiClub communicated to ResiClub PRO members in late 2023and reaffirmed last fallwe expect national active inventory to approach pre-pandemic 2019 levels in the second half of 2025. Thats still the trajectory were on.
National active listings are on the rise (+31.5% between May 2024 and May 2025). This indicates that homebuyers have gained some leverage in many parts of the country over the past year. Some seller’s markets have turned into balanced markets, and more balanced markets have turned into buyer’s markets. Nationally, were still below pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels (-12.3% below May 2019), and some resale markets, in particular big chunks of the Midwest and Northeast, still remain tight-ish.
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May 2017: 1,253,854
May 2018: 1,156,910
May 2019: 1,180,920
May 2020: 928,370
May 2021: 447,662 (overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom)
May 2022: 479,462
May 2023: 582,441
May 2024: 787,722
May 2025: 1,036,101
If we maintain the current year-over-year pace of inventory growth (+248,379 homes for sale), we’d have:
1,284,480 active inventory come May 2026
1,532,859 active inventory come May 2027
Below is the year-over-year percentage change by state.
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While active housing inventory is rising in most markets on a year-over-year basis, some markets still remain tight-ish (although it’s loosening).
As ResiClub has been documenting, both active resale and new homes for sale remain the most limited across huge swaths of the Midwest and Northeast. Thats where home sellers this spring had, relatively speaking, more power.
In contrast, active housing inventory for sale has neared or surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels in many parts of the Sun Belt and Mountain West, including metro-area housing markets such as Punta Gorda, Florida, and Austin. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the pandemic housing boom, with home prices getting stretched in comparison with local incomes.
As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa, Florida, and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives (if they have the margins to do so) to maintain sales in a shifted market, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. That puts additional upward pressure on resale inventory.
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At the end of May 2025, 10 states were above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington. (The District of Columbiawhich we left out of this analysisis back above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels, too. Weakness in D.C. proper predates the current admins job cuts.)
To better understand ongoing softness and weakness across Florida, read this ResiClub PRO report.
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Big picture: Over the past few years, weve observed a softening across many housing markets as strained affordability tempers the fervor of a market that was unsustainably hot during the pandemic housig boom.
While home prices are falling in some areas around the Gulf, most regional housing markets are still seeing positive year-over-year home price growth. That said, given the current softening, ResiClub expects that as the year progresses, more markets will fall into the year-over-year decline camp.
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Below is another version of the table abovebut this one includes every month since January 2017. (Sorry if its a little blurryclick the interactive link to see a version that isnt blurry.)
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If youd like to further examine the monthly state inventory figures, use the interactive below.
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On Monday, the head of U.S. disaster agency FEMA stunned staffers when he mentioned in a briefing that hed not been aware of any such thing as hurricane season. Not exactly an ideal grasp of weather phenomena for the person in charge of Americas emergency management.
Although a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security later claimed the comment was intended as a joke, it didn’t exactly rouse more confidence in his abilities. I dont know, after all, has lately become a go-to line among leaders all throughout the federal governmentespecially the president himself.
The most egregious I dont know in recent memory was almost certainly Trumps response when a reporter asked him if the president needs to uphold the U.S. Constitution, something he swore an oath to do, but thats just the tip of the uninformed iceberg.
Ignorance may be bliss but in President Donald Trumps second term, its just standard operating procedure. Nearly five months in, its starting to look like the I Dont Know administration.
WELKER: Your secretary of state says everyone who's here, citizens and non-citizens, deserve due process. Do you agree?TRUMP: I don't know. I'm not a lawyer. I don't know.WELKER: Don't you need to uphold the Constitution?TRUMP: I don't know pic.twitter.com/xRwDh8sm0X— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 4, 2025
Every shade in the I dont know rainbow
For leaders in every field, I dont know can be a get-out-of-jail-free card for difficult questions, be they from board members, reporters, or staff at an all-hands meeting. I dont know can be the meat in a sandwich where the bread slices are, thats a great question, and Ill look into that. It only tends to work as an acceptable deflection, however, if used sparingly. Thats certainly not the case with the current president.
Some of Trumps I dont knowswhich will be labeled IDKs going forward, for brevityseem utterly genuine. It stands to reason that the president might have merely been candid, rather than obtuse, in an Oval Office meeting back in April when he said he did not know what ‘the Congo’ is. More often than not, however, those IDKs smack of tactics.
Looking closely at the presidents recent speeches, press conferences, and interviews, he appears to have three main modes for using IDK as a strategic evasion: the Ostrich, the Complicator, and the Minimizer.
As the title suggests, the Ostrich is Trumps way of metaphorically burying his head in the sand. He employs it seemingly to avoid admitting an inconvenient fact, either to maintain plausible deniability or deflect blame. The Ostrich is perfect for neither confirming nor denying the details of Signalgate right as that explosive story first broke, explaining why the new surgeon general is a wellness influencer and not a practicing physician, or why Trump pardoned a violent January 6 rioter who assaulted a police officer.
The Complicator is the IDK Trump trots out in an apparent effort to inject ambiguity into settled issues, or at least those with an obvious correct answer. Is the separation of church and state a good thing or a bad thing? Trump does not know. Do DOGEs massive cuts or the elimination of the US Agency of International Development require a vote in Congress? Whos to say. (Certainly not Trump.) Did Trump benefit at all from sky-high sales of the memecoin that literally bears his name? Consider asking someone else who may know of such things.
Finally, The Minimizer is the IDK Trump seems to reach for when casting a moment or person as so insignificant as to not be worth talking about. It cant be a big deal if Trump doesnt even know about itperhaps it never even happened! This one is reserved for not acknowledging things like Mitch McConnells battle with polio or a Kennedy Center audience booing JD Vance.
It can be hard to tell sometimes whether Trump is using strategic evasion or if he truly doesnt know something. Either way, when it comes to issues as important as the arrest and detention of a Tufts University student, seemingly over her writing of a pro-Palestine op-ed in a student newspaper, the leader of the free world not knowing about it is a problem.
The evolution of Trumps IDKs
Trumps history with IDK runs all the way back to the early days of his political career. In a February 2016 interview, Jake Tapper asked the then-candidate if he wanted to disavow a recent endorsement from former KKK leader David Duke, who told listeners on his radio show that week that voting for anyone besides Trump is really a treason to your heritage.
What should have been a no-brainer disavowal, however, ended up becoming an Ostrich moment. “I don’t know anything about David Duke,” Trump claimed. The non-disavowal quickly became a persistent news item, helped in no small part by unearthed footage of Trump previously denouncing Duke in the year 2000. (Trump went on to disavow Duke again, and blame a supposedly shoddy earpiece during the Tapper interview for his not doing so sooner.)
During his first term as president, Trump seemed to use IDKs as a folksy performance of not being the average ivory tower egghead politician. He wouldnt simply admit when he didnt know something, he would cast it as groundbreaking information for Real Americas. The telltale term in such instances wasnt IDK, but rather nobody knew. When Trump proved unable to quickly replace Obamacare, he famously lamented, nobody knew health care could be so complicated. He used this construction so often, Now This made a supercut about it.
As for those in Trumps cabinet and in Congress during his first term, the IDKs mostly came in response to reporters asking for reactions to Trumps provocative tweets.
The ‘I dont know’ administration
The difference between Trumps first term and his current one is that both Trump and his colleagues seem to be a lot more comfortable dropping IDKs, considering how often they do it. Another change, though, is the brazenness with which they offer them.
The Secretary of Health didnt know whether the COVID-19 vaccine saved millions of lives or not. The Secretary of Education didnt know about a new policy of vetting social media accounts for foreign students. The Secretary of Labor didnt know her department had eliminated a whole agency, the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs, one that happened to be investigating self-styled DOGEfather Elon Musk. And neither the Secretary of State nor the Speaker of the House apparently knew about the presidents private dinner for investors in his cryptocurrency during the week of the dinner.
Members of Team Trump even cling to their supposed lack of information as they are offered enlightenment in real time. Anyone paying close attention to politics in 2025 will have likely seen by now the surreal spectacle of a grown adult denying the necessary knowledge to determine whether, say, January 6 rioters behaved violently, while being shown a video about it.
The worst offender of the bunch is probably Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Questioned about a doctored image Trump shared in an effort to link mistakenly deported immigrant Kilmar Abrego Garcia with the violent gang MS-13, Noem vehemently refused to admit the image had obviously been photoshopped. I dont have any knowledge as to that photo youre pointing to, she claimed, refusing to look at the blown-up image in question. When the congressman interrogating her asked an assistant to bring the poster image within five feet of Noems face, she declined to look at it, and thus continued to know nothing about it.
Its getting easier to believe, though, that Trump and his administration may not know a lot of things. Who knows what they wont know tomorrow.
Everywhere you look these days, there it issome manner of breathlessly hyped new AI service thats, like, totally gonna change your life forever. (Like, totally. For realsies.)
Or so they say. In reality, of course, most of this stuff is far more fallible, limited in utility, and inadvisable to use outside of super-specific scenarios than most tech companies (and self-declared AI gurus) would lead you to believe.
But AI, in its current form, isnt entirely useless. Far from it, in fact: This type of tech can be quite helpful in the right sort of scenario and, critically, if you think about it in the right waynot as an end-all instant answer machine but as a starting point for certain types of specific tasks or info-seeking.
And as we wade our way through a year thats absolutely overflowing with overwrought AI ballyhoo, Ive got just the tool for you to sift through that sea and seek out some surprising shiny pearls amid all the overwhelming noise.
Be the first to find all sorts of little-known tech treasures with my free Cool Tools newsletter from The Intelligence. One useful new discovery in your inbox every Wednesday!
Deep research, done right
So, youve probably heard all about ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, and the likes, right?
Theyre all generative AI chatbots, which means they use a snazzy-sounding word prediction engine to analyze language patterns and answer your questions, among other more ambitious tasks.
One of their biggest recent advancements is the ability to perform what everyones calling deep researcha fancy way of saying theyll dive deep into a topic for you and create a detailed report of info, almost like a custom-made dossier, based on knowledge from all over the web.
Again, I cant emphasize enough: The info here isnt infallible. These systems canand doget stuff wrong and sometimes even flat-out make up nonsense out of thin air.
But, as a starting pointespecially when they include links to their sources so you can confirm info on your own and use it as an entryway to research as opposed to the final productit really can save you time and give you a great way to get into a complex topic.
And the tool I want to show to you today makes that feature far more powerful, useful, and also affordable than its ever been before.
Itll take you 20 seconds to try out for yourself.
Its called, amusingly, Ithy. (Try saying that 10 times fast!) And all it does, in a nutshell, is bring together the deep research tools from a slew of different AI enginesincluding ChatGPT and Googles Gemini along with Perplexity, Meta AI, and moreinto a single streamlined prompt. That means you can use em all together to create a single super-report on any subject imaginable.
It couldnt be much easier to make happen, either:
First, open up Ithy in any browser, on any device youre using.
Type your question or the subject youre thinking about into its box and tap or click the arrow icon within that same line to get going.
Select either Fast, if you dont feel like waiting, or Deep, if youve got time and want this thing to go especially in-depth. (Even the Fast path is pretty darn deep, if you ask me.)
And, well, thats about it.
Just type in a prompt, and Ithy will pull in data from Gemini, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and beyond.
Ithy will think for a bit, then serve up an impressively detailed dossier on whatever it is you requestedwith info coming from a mix of all those AI engines, combined and seamlessly blended together.
It takes a matter of moments for Ithy to compile info from all the associated AI engines for you.
And I mean seriously detailed, toowith all sorts of sections, graphics, FAQs, and external links for original sources so you can do your own reading and see exactly where it got its info.
Ithys reports are impressively detailed, with data provided by all the different AI sources seamlessly blended togetherand thoroughly cited.
Heres a link to the sample report shown here, if you want to look even more closely.
Now, for the especially cool part: Ithy lets you do all of this free of chargeup to a point. The site gives you five report-creating credits to start, even if you dont sign in.
Once you create an account (for free), youll get 10 credits per month and can optionally then bump up to an unlimited Pro planwhich includes access to the typically pricey pro levels of Gemini and OpenAIfor seven bucks a month, if you go for the annual setup.
But even if you dont go that route, 10 in-depth reports per month from all the webs eading AI engines together is a pretty powerful perk to have at your fingertips, without so much as dropping a dime.
Ithy is entirely web-basedno downloads or installations required.
Its free for up to 5 reports total or 10 reports per month, if you create an accountand optionally available in $7-per-month (paid annually) or $20-per-month (paid monthly) plan for its fully featured, limit-free Pro version.
Like most AI engines, Ithy does use questions submitted to its site as training to further improve its AI systems. The questions are also being shared with the associated third-party AI sites, of course. So youll want to think carefully about what you ask and avoid sending anything especially sensitive or personal (but really, its designed to answer questions and provide info, so hopefully you wouldnt be submitting your banking info and Social Security number, anyway!).
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