Rhode Island will now provide workplace accommodations for women experiencing menopause. The groundbreaking move makes the state the first ever to mandate any accommodations related to menopause by law.
Effective June 24, 2025, the state’s Fair Employment Practices Act, which covers conditions relating to pregnancy, labor, and postpartum, added menopause to the list of conditions it covers. Under the amended act, reasonable accommodations for menopause or menopause-related conditions, including “the need to manage the effects of vasomotor symptoms,” such as hot flashes (one of the most common menopause symptoms), are included. The bill, however, did not provide more detail on what reasonable accommodations look like.
Menopause is a difficult and personal subject that has been stigmatized in this country,” Senator Lori Urso (D-Dist. 8, Pawtucket), who introduced the legislation, earlier this year said in a press release. “But its high time we normalize it, especially for the benefit of women in the workplace.” Urso added that a lack of such protections contributes to the gender pay gap and causes women to lose leadership opportunities.
Under Rhode Island’s Fair Employment Practices Act, the state already required employers with at least four employees to provide accommodations for pregnant persons and conditions related to pregnancy and childbirth. At least 31 states mandate such accommodationsa number that has been rising in recent years. All 50 states must require some accommodations for lactation, too, under the Fair Labor Standards Act. In 2022, the PUMP Act expanded those protections to include more industries, like nursing, education, truck and taxi drivers, and more.
However, menopause accommodations have long been overlooked. That’s in spite of the fact that the normal, yet often uncomfortable, condition impacts nearly half the population. An estimated 85% of people experience symptoms such as mood swings, migraines, hot flashes, insomnia, anxiety, night sweats, and more during menopause. For some, those symptoms can be severe, however, until now, no state has legally acknowledged the condition in the workplace.
The ACLU of Rhode Island spoke to the importance of the proposed legislation earlier in a press release prior to its passing. Menopause is a natural and common phase in the lives of millions of individuals, but its impact and symptoms can have profound and long-lasting effects on a persons health and daily life,” said Madalyn McGunagle, policy associate at the Rhode Island ACLU.
McGunagle continued, “The ACLU of Rhode Island supports this bill, which would make explicit that employers must provide reasonable accommodations to employees experiencing menopause, just as the law currently requires accommodations for various pregnancy-related conditions. By extending protections to those experiencing menopause, we can ensure that they are given the necessary accommodations to continue performing their jobs effectively.”
Unlike the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act, which was written in gender neutral language and covers transgender individuals, Rhode Island’s Fair Employment Practices Act does not include such language. Fast Company reached out to Senator Urso’s office to clarify whether menopause accommodations will include transgender individuals but did not hear back by the time of publication.
Estée Laundry, the anonymous Instagram account and self-proclaimed beauty industry watchdog, is back after a two-year hiatus.
Estée Laundrythe name a play on beauty giant Estée Lauderlaunched in 2018 to air out the beauty industrys dirty laundry, as the accounts bio once read. It posted regularly, and followers, or Laundrites, were encouraged to weigh in on daily beauty news and controversies. That continued until some members of the anonymous collective left, and the account ultimately went quiet in 2023.
This month, however, a new post appeared asking followers, serious question, are there still any exciting beauty brands? In a recent interview with Business of Fashion, the beauty custodian described itself as a group of outsiders with ties to the beauty industry. Those ties remain strong enough to break news: the account was the first to share an internal memo announcing layoffs at Shiseido Americas last week.
View this post on Instagram A post shared by Estée Laundry (@esteelaundry)
Like its fashion industry counterpart Diet Prada, Estée Laundry grew its nearly 200,000-strong following by spotlighting industry-wide issues such as cultural appropriation, lack of diversity, and unsubstantiated product claims. Major brands that have found themselves in the crosshairs include millennial-favorite Glossier, Fenty Beauty, and the Kardashians, to name a few.
In 2022, the account famously flagged former Estée Lauder Companies executive John Demseys Instagram post that included a racial epithet (which he swiftly deleted). Hows it OK for a beauty executive (responsible for the branding and direction of a company that claims to focus on diversity and inclusion) to post this? the account questioned. The executive was forced to resign less than a week later, The New York Times reported.
Now, Estée Laundry is back and shifting gears. With the relaunch, the group is intentionally moving away from its vigilante roots and instead focusing on longform opinion pieces via a weekly Patreon newsletter, aptly named Laundry Service, for $8 a month.
A representative told Business of Fashion, We think of ourselves as a beauty industry observer.
When top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm, they are almost certain to agree to at least leaving tariffs at the current levels while working toward a meeting between their presidents later this year for a more lasting trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, analysts say.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to hold talks Monday for the third time this year this round in the Swedish capital, nearly four months after President Donald Trump upset global trade with his sweeping tariff proposal, including an import tax that shot up to 145% on Chinese goods.“We have the confines of a deal with China,” Trump said Friday before leaving for Scotland.Bessent told MSNBC on Wednesday that the two countries after talks in Geneva and London have reached a “status quo,” with the U.S. taxing imported goods from China at 30% and China responding with a 10% tariff, on top of tariffs prior to the start of Trump’s second term.“Now we can move on to discussing other matters in terms of bringing the economic relationship into balance,” Bessent said. He was referring to the U.S. running a $295.5 billion trade deficit last year. The U.S. seeks an agreement that would enable it to export more to China and shift the Chinese economy more toward domestic consumer spending.The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing hopes “there will be more consensus and cooperation and less misperception” coming out of the talks.With an eye on a possible leaders’ summit, Stockholm could provide some answers as to the timeline and viability of that particular goal ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.“The meeting will be important in starting to set the stage for a fall meeting between Trump and Xi,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Beijing will likely insist on detailed preparations before they agree to a leaders’ meeting.”In Stockholm, the two sides are likely to focus on commercial announcements to be made at a leaders’ summit as well as agreements to address “major irritants,” such as China’s industrial overcapacity and its lack of control over chemicals used to make fentanyl, also to be announced when Xi and Trump should meet, Cutler said.Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said Stockholm could be the first real opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues including market access in China for U.S. companies.What businesses will be seeking coming out of Stockholm would largely be “the atmosphere” how the two sides characterize the discussions. They will also look for clues about a possible leaders’ summit because any real deal will hinge on the two presidents meeting each other, he said.
Fentanyl-related tariffs are likely a focus for China
In Stockholm, Beijing will likely demand the removal of the 20% fentanyl-related tariff that Trump imposed earlier this year, said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center.This round of the U.S.-China trade dispute began with fentanyl, when Trump in February imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing that China failed to curb the outflow of the chemicals used to make the drug. The following month, Trump added another 10% tax for the same reason. Beijing retaliated with extra duties on some U.S. goods, including coal, liquefied natural gas, and farm products such as beef, chicken, pork and soy.In Geneva, both sides climbed down from three-digit tariffs rolled out following Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, but the U.S. kept the 20% “fentanyl” tariffs, in addition to the 10% baseline rate to which China responded by keeping the same 10% rate on U.S. products. These across-the-board duties were unchanged when the two sides met in London a month later to negotiate over non-tariff measures such as export controls on critical products.The Chinese government has long protested that American politicians blame China for the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. but argued the root problem lies with the U.S. itself. Washington says Beijing is not doing enough to regulate precursor chemicals that flow out of China into the hands of drug dealers.In July, China placed two fentanyl ingredients under enhanced control, a move seen as in response to U.S. pressure and signaling goodwill.Gabriel Wildau, managing director at the consultancy Teneo, said he doesn’t expect any tariff to go away in Stockholm but that tariff relief could be part of a final trade deal.“It’s possible that Trump would cancel the 20% tariff that he has explicitly linked with fentanyl, but I would expect the final tariff level on China to be at least as high as the 15-20% rate contained in the recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam,” Wildau said.
U.S. wants China to dump less, buy less oil from Russia and Iran
China’s industrial overcapacity is as much a headache for the United States as it is for the European Union. Even Beijing has acknowledged the problem but suggested it might be difficult to address.America’s trade imbalance with China has decreased from a peak of $418 billion in 2018, according to the Census Bureau. But China has found new markets for its goods and as the world’s dominant manufacturer ran a global trade surplus approaching $1 trillion last year somewhat larger than the size of the U.S. overall trade deficit in 2024. And China’s emergence as a manufacturer of electric vehicles and other emerging technologies has suddenly made it more of a financial and geopolitical threat for those same industries based in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea.“Some enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, feel more deeply that China’s manufacturing capabilities are too strong, and Chinese people are too hardworking. Factories run 24 hours a day,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Thursday when hosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing. “Some people think this will cause some new problems in the balance of supply and demand in world production.”“We see this problem too,” Li said.Bessent also said the Stockholm talks could address Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. However, Wildau of Teneo said China could demand some U.S. security concessions in exchange, such as a reduced U.S. military presence in East Asia and scaled-back diplomatic support for Taiwan and the Philippines. This would likely face political pushback in Washington.The Stockholm talks will be “geared towards building a trade agreement based around Chinese purchase commitments and pledges of investment in the U.S. in exchange for partial relief from U.S. tariffs and export controls,” Wildau said.He doubts there will be a grand deal. Instead, he predicts “a more limited agreement based around fentanyl.”“That,” he said, “is probably the preferred outcome for China hawks in the Trump administration, who worry that an overeager Trump might offer too much to Xi.”
Didi Tang and Josh Boak, Associated Press
Associated Press writer Paul Wiseman contributed to this report
The stock price for the EV charging company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) went up dramatically this morningbut, for investors, that might not be good news.
ChargePoint just implemented a measure called a reverse stock split, a move intended to artificially increase the share price of a company without actually boosting its overall value. Typically, a reverse stock split is used as an effort to prevent a company from being delisted from a stock exchange, and it often signals that said company is struggling financially.
Investors are already demonstrating their wariness: As of this writing, ChargePoint stock is down more than 14% since market open this morning. Heres what to know about the companys reverse stock split:
What is ChargePoint?
ChargePoint Holdings is one of the largest EV charging networks in the world. The company operates more than a million chargers in the U.S. and Europe, many of which are free to use and easy to find via the companys app. In recent years, its signed partnerships with Starbucks and Airbnb and helped to electrify an entire village in Senegal.
Despite these milestones, ChargePoint has been navigating a rocky financial period. It reported a net loss of $282.9 million in the fiscal year ending in January, and, on June 5, 2025, it shared that its first-quarter 2026 revenue was down 9% compared to the previous year.
What is a reverse stock split?
A reverse stock split happens when a company boosts the price tag of its stock by combining many shares into one. In the case of ChargePoint, the reverse split took place at a ratio of 1-for-20, meaning that the value of one share today is equal to 20 shares last week.
A reverse stock split doesnt mean that the companys overall value has increasedit just means that there are now far fewer shares available, each at a higher cost.
After the reverse stock split, ChargePoint investors will still own the same total value in the company, consolidated into fewer shares. The reverse split was approved by ChargePoints shareholders on July 8.
Whats the point of a reverse stock split?
Companies use a reverse stock split when, for a number of reasons, they need to artificially increase the price of their shares. According to a press release, ChargePoint took this measure to comply with the minimum trading price criteria for continued listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
On the NYSE, listed companies need to maintain an average closing price of at least $1 per share over 30 consecutive trading days in order to meet the exchanges trading price criteria. In July, ChargePoint consistently traded below that $1 thresholdmeaning that, without a reverse stock split, it might have been at risk of delisting.
What does this mean for investors?
ChargePoints decision, paired with its recently rough financials, is likely to be a red flag for investors. The stocks current plummet shows that lack of confidence playing out in real time, demonstrating that the company is in a rough spot and is taking extreme measures to prevent delisting.
In the past several years, other companies including WeWork, Virgin Galactic Holdings, and Nikola have used a similar strategy to continue trading.
European Union wine and spirits producers could emerge among the few winners of a EU-U.S. trade deal agreed at the weekend that some European officials consider unbalanced.
The high-level agreement, which imposes a 15% baseline duty for most EU goods entering the United States, is set to include tariff exemptions for some agricultural products, still to be hammered out.
Alcoholic beverages could be among those, according to trade and industry officials.
“We are optimistic that in the days ahead this positive meeting and agreement will lead to a return to zero-for-zero tariffs for U.S. and EU spirits products,” Distilled Spirits Council President and CEO Chris Swonger said in a statement in response to the U.S.-EU agreement.
On Monday, French Trade Minister Laurent Saint Martin also said he expected the spirits sector to be exempted from U.S. tariffs.
If confirmed, an exemption would offer a lifeline to alcohol players including the world’s biggest spirits maker, Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and Campari, all of which are very exposed to vast U.S. market and whose profits have already taken a big hit as consumers spend less on drink.
Shares in Pernod, Diageo and Campari initially rose in early trade. But they stood 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.3% lower by 0707 GMT. Shares in Remy fell 2.2%.
Alcohol is among the EU’s top exports to the United States, worth about 9 billion euros ($10.5 billion) in 2024, according to Eurostat data, with certain products like Remy Martin cognac and champagne required to be produced in specific European regions.
About one-third of all exports of Irish whiskey such as Pernod Ricard’s Jameson are destined for the United States.
Earlier in July, President Donald Trump had threatened a crippling 30% tariff that some industry experts said could stop flows of certain EU goods towards the United States.
The United States accounts for about 18% of exports for another exclusively French product, champagne.
Of all exports of cognac from its namesake region in France, about 43% end up in the United States. LVMH owns Hennessy Cognac.
Remy Cointreau, which makes more than 70% of its sales from French-made cognac, is among the alcohol makers hit hardest by tariffs. It has pegged the hit from tariffs imposed globally at about 45 million euros.
For cognac makers, the U.S. tariffs represent a fresh challenge after producers of the drink managed this month to avert the threat of duties of up to around 35% from China.
For Spanish and Italian wines, around 14% and 24% of total exports, respectively, are sold in the United States.
Beer brewers and makers of popular ready-to-drink cocktails will, however, continue to face tariffs on imported aluminum they may use for cans. Under the EU-U.S. deal struck on Sunday, Washington will continue to impose a levy of 50% on steel and aluminum entering the United States.
($1 = 0.8518 euros)
Emma Rumney and Jessica DiNapoli, Reuters
Businesses have spent the past decade or more amassing vast amounts of data on customers, sales, and nearly everything else measurable. Yet everyday employeesand even C-suite leadersoften struggle to work directly with these datasets, which typically require specialized technical skills to access, analyze, and query.
Julius AI, a startup founded in 2022, claims to have a solution. It offers AI that allows users to ask questions in plain English, like Why is our revenue going up? or Can I see a pie chart of sales by region? The system then automatically generates code in languages like Python to deliver the required answer or data visualization, often within seconds, along with a written explanation of the process.
Previously users would have needed to submit questions to their companys data science team, wait for clarifying questions, and then receive a response or link to a chart. Now they can simply talk to Julius.
“They can just ask questions and get instant insights, says founder and CEO Rahul Sonwalkar. And then they [can] ask a lot of follow-up questions.
So far, the tool has generated roughly 10 million data visualizations for users and produced an additional 4 million lines of code every day, Sonwalkar says. Its also the tool of choice in Harvard Business Schools Data Science and AI for Leaders class, now required for every incoming MBA student.
[Image: Courtesy of Julius]
For data scientists, Julius allows more time to focus on long-term projects, rather than handling a constant stream of ad hoc questions (and follow-ups) from colleagues. And when needed, they can use Julius themselves.
The interface resembles a Jupyter notebook (commonly used by analysts for step-by-step workflows and visualizations) but with the added ability to input plain English, alongside code in Python, SQL, or R. This saves even experienced programmers the effort of looking up obscure syntax or remembering exact database table and column names. While those familiar with coding can edit the AI-generated code, most users dontand thats okay.
[Image: Courtesy of Julius]
Most of our users dont know what Python is, Sonwalkar says.
Julius recently raised $10 million in a funding round led by Bessemer Venture Partners and now has nearly 2 million users. The company is continuously expanding its capabilities to better handle sprawling enterprise data. Initially, users had to upload files like spreadsheets, but the tool can now connect to popular database and data warehouse platforms such as PostgreSQL and Snowflake. The AI can analyze database layouts to understand whats stored where, share that information with users, and build deeper contextual knowledge over time, Sonwalkar says.
Julius is currently preparing integrations with other key business data sources, like Googles advertising tools, as well as working toward compatibility with established business intelligence platforms, aiming to replicate and enhance analyses already in use.
The company is also working on enhanced support for visualization dashboards, along with scheduled queries that automatically refresh with new data on a regular basis, both common features of business intelligence software. And for users weary of checking dashboards to see whether any numbers have gone up or down unexpectedly, Julius expects to add notifications that can let users know if something noteworthy appears in the data.
[Image: Courtesy of Julius]
Theres a dashboard fatigue in companies, Sonwalkar says. There are 50 dashboards that each team monitors every week, and most dashboards honestly dont change.
But when they do, users will be able to ask Julius for an explanation and direct it to explore the underlying metrics, which traditional dashboards dont allow without manual coding.
Julius isnt alone in pursuing AI-driven data science. Many data providers, from polling giant Morning Consult to various sales and marketing platforms, have added AI to help customers explore their datasets more intelligently. Established business intelligence tools are also layering in AI interfaces, while leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have launched their own data analysis tools.
Still, Sonwalkar contends that Julius offers more robust features and deeper data source integrations than the AI tools from the big labsand is built from the ground up to help everyday users interact intelligently with data, rather than layering AI onto existing legacy systems.
Were rebuilding the experience from scratch, he says.
Director James Gunn got an ovation from thousands for “Superman” in the most fitting place of all Comic-Con.Among the highlights of day three of the San Diego pop culture spectacular was a sincere tribute to the director who’s now helming Warner Bros.’ DC Comics screen universe, even if John Cena played it for laughs.It came at a panel on the forthcoming Season 2 of DC’s HBO series “The Peacemaker,” and Cena appeared in the title character’s full comic costume and grand helmet, leading the legions in the kind of exaggerated drama he was perfect at provoking in his wrestling days.It was Gunn’s first time in front of a crowd in the weeks since “Superman” was released and has earned more than $200 million in North America.“Today has been the most fun day I’ve had in a year,” Gunn told the crowd at the end of the session.“Superman” was his first film as captain of the DC ship, but his first foray was in 2021’s “The Suicide Squad,” which spawned the “Peacemaker” TV series.The crowd saw scenes from Season 2, which arrives in August and sees Cena entering another dimension where he gets to be a cool version of the hero instead of the often pained and pathetic version that’s typical of the character. Some characters from “Superman” will make appearances.That panel followed another rousing showcase in Hall H, where star Ryan Gosling and directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller showed scenes from their forthcoming science-comedy space adventure “Project Hail Mary.”The scenes from the film set for release in March included a look at Rocky, a faceless, stone-shaped alien who becomes Gosling’s unlikely partner in an attempt to save the universe from ecological disaster.
Saturday morning cartoons in Hall H
Wile E. Coyote is getting his day in court and theaters.The stars of “Coyote vs. Acme” delivered a rousing presentation Saturday morning of a movie that at one point wasn’t going to be released but is now bound for theaters in August 2026. The underdog story both of the movie and Coyote was a running theme of the panel. But rather than direct ire at Warner Bros., the real-world studio that shelved the project, the panel focused on the fictional Acme Corp.“This is purely an Acme decision and I am saying this for legal purposes,” moderator Paul Scheer said at the start of the panel.The movie is a hybrid of animation and live action and is based on a 1990 New Yorker article that satirized a legal complaint filed by Coyote against Acme, the maker of the TNT, detonators, rocket shoes, catapults and other products that consistently backfire during the Coyote’s fruitless attempts to catch the Roadrunner.Laughter filled Hall H as some 6,000 watched a montage of Coyote being blown up, flattened and falling into chasms in a scene set to Johnny Cash’s cover of “Hurt.” Coyote is replaying the moments in his lair when an ad for a personal injury lawyer appears on TV.They also played six minutes of the movie, including a scene of opening statements in the case in which Coyote’s lawyer, Will Forte, accidentally unleashes a rocket skate into the courtroom, setting Coyote and the judge’s robes on fire. Cena plays a slick Acme lawyer who wins over the jury, which includes a cartoon character, quickly.Forte said he didn’t think the movie would ever get to audiences.“I’m pretty speechless. You think back to the journey that this movie has taken. I had kind of given up hope at a certain point,” Forte said. At one point, his comments were interrupted by a man playing an Acme lawyer who stormed into Hall H with cease-and-desist letters.Director Dave Green said the movie conforms to famed animator Chuck Jones’ rules for the struggle between the Coyote and Roadrunner, which include the bird always staying on the road and the Coyote being ultimately more humiliated than hurt when he falls, is crushed or gets blown up by TNT.The movie, which features cameos from numerous Looney Tunes characters like Foghorn Leghorn, Tweety and Bugs Bunny, will be released on Aug. 28, 2026. Ketchup Entertainment teamed up with Warner Bros. on the film and in the release of “The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie.”Also on Saturday morning, the cast of “Bad Guys 2” teasing new footage from the movie and describing how they recorded their characters.Marc Maron, who plays Snake, joked he asked to be tied up as he performed his lines on the floor. “The depth of the character should read a little more this time,” he said.The film, based on the graphic novel series by Aaron Blabey, introduces a new crew of animal criminals, the Bad Girls played by Danielle Brooks, Natasha Lyonne and Maria Bakalova.
‘Star Trek’ ventures to new places
Paramount showed off its first footage from a new series, “Starfleet Academy,” which stars Holly Hunter and Paul Giamatti.The show follows cadets as they go through training, with Hunter serving as chancellor of the academy.It will arrive in 2026, the 60th anniversary year of the original “Star Trek” series.Paramount+’s other “Star Trek” series, “Strange New Worlds,” also shared updates.The crew of the USS Enterprise are being turned into puppets for an upcoming “Strange New Worlds” episode, Paramount announced Saturday. The puppets will be created by Jim Henson’s Creature Shop.Season 3, which follows the adventures of the Enterprise under the command of Capt. Christopher Pike, is being released on Paramount+.
What’s happened at Comic-Con 2025 so far
An estimated 135,000 people many in costumes are expected to attend Comic-Con 2025, which runs through Sunday in downtown San Diego.So far, fans have gotten previews of “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2,”the upcoming FX series “Alien: Earth,””Tron: Ares” and “Predator: Badlands,” which will be in theaters in November.
Associated Press
The U.S. central bank, to President Donald Trump’s chagrin, will likely leave interest rates unchanged at a policy meeting this week, but that’s not to say there won’t be a vigorous debate, with one if not two Federal Reserve governors possibly casting a rare dissent in support of lower borrowing costs.
The majority of Fed policymakers, though, remain concerned that Trump’s tariffs could undo progress on bringing inflation back to the central bank’s 2% goal, outweighing for now worries about the labor market.
The trade deal struck between the U.S. and Japan last week, with tariffs set at 15%, and reported progress for a similar rate in talks with the European Union make it more likely that import duties overall will end up well below the punishing levels Trump announced on his April 2 “Liberation Day.”
Even so, U.S. tariffs are at their highest level in 90 years, and the effects are starting to show up in household purchases. A surge in prices of goods like furnishings and apparel helped drive overall consumer inflation to an annualized 3.5% pace in June.
So soon after a bout of 40-year-high inflation, policymakers fear fast-rising prices could “freak out” households, as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sometimes phrases it, triggering a wider inflationary spiral.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that is only one of many possible scenarios, he has argued the central bank can wait to learn more before adjusting rates, especially with a 4.1% unemployment rate near or below estimates of full employment.
Other data and the outlook amid Trump’s broader economic program, including tax cuts and deregulation, invite differing views on the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
“Considering the clear divergence in the near-term policy outlook between (Fed Governor Christopher) Waller and (Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle) Bowman and the other FOMC participants, we expect both Waller and Bowman to dissent in favor of a 25-bp (basis-point) cut,” wrote analysts at Nomura Securities, one of several Wall Street firms predicting the first double dissent from Fed governors since 1993.
Both Waller and Bowman were appointed to the Board of Governors by Trump, who has excoriated Powell for resisting the White House’s demand for an immediate rate cut and broached the idea of firing the Fed chief before his term expires next May.
Last week, during a rare but tense visit to the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, Trump once again pressed the case for lower rates, though he also said he didn’t think it was necessary to fire Powell.
Waller, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to Powell, sees private-sector job growth nearing stall speed and fears companies could turn to layoffs in the absence of easier credit conditions.
Private-sector hiring accounted for just half of the gain of 147,000 U.S. jobs in June, and Waller says other data suggests even that reading overestimates the true increase. Bowman has also expressed worries about labor market deterioration and feels a rate cut may be needed to prevent it.
Both are skeptical tariffs will lead to persistent inflation.
Several others, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, also see recent muted price increases as suggesting tariffs may not push up inflation as much as earlier thought.
RECORD-BREAKING ECONOMY
Ahead of the scheduled release on Wednesday of the Fed’s policy statement, the Commerce Department is widely expected to report that economic activity reaccelerated in the second quarter, pushing total output above $30 trillion in non-inflation-adjusted terms for the first time.
That may shore up Trump’s bragging rights to what he says is a U.S. economy that would take off like a rocket if only the Fed cut rates.
But central bankers will see it as more ambiguous. The expected increase follows a first-quarter drop in GDP from a historic rush to front-run Trump’s tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners.
“While a sharp reversal in imports will mechanically boost Q2 GDP, tariff-induced cost pressures, persistent policy uncertainty, severely curtailed immigration, and elevated interest rates are collectively dampening employment, business investment and household consumption,” wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “The U.S. economy continues to navigate a complex set of cross-currents, obscuring a clear reading of its underlying momentum.”
Consumer spending, accounting for two-thirds of economic output, has been reasonably strong, with retail sales rising more than expected last month.
Though household bank account balances are lower on a year-over-year basis, data from the JPMorganChase Institute last week suggests overall cash reserves are in better shape.
Bank credit extended to consumers and businesses is up from the prior year for the first time in more than two years, Fed data shows.
Similarly, loan volume and demand rose beginning in late May after sluggish or no growth since the year began, a Dallas Fed survey shows, and bankers expect increased economic activity and rising credit demand through the end of this year.
In another sign the economy isn’t rolling over, Fed data shows manufacturing output grew last quarter, albeit by a slower 2.1% annualized pace than the first quarter’s 3.7% pace. A measure of how fully firms are using their resources edged up to 77.6% in June from 77.5% in May.
Still, business investment may be faltering. Data on Friday showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft unexpectedly dropped 0.7% in June as firms grew more cautious about spending.
Other data points to a weakening economy, bolstering the minority argument for rate cuts soon.
Employment growth has slowed and hiring breadth is narrowing, led by just a few service-providing sectors.
Finding a job after losing one is getting harder. Half of those collecting unemployment benefits remain on the jobless rolls for at least two-and-a-half months.
And the housing and construction sectors are clearly on the back foot, feeling the drag of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering near 7%.
Overall construction spending has fallen for nine straight months a streak unseen since the 2007-2009 financial crisis and new single-family home starts were the lowest in nearly a year in June. Sales of new and existing homes remain anemic.
“Weak housing demand is convincng evidence that rates are still restrictive, with factors like a softening labor market and high uncertainty possibly also weighing on demand,” Citi economists wrote.
Ann Saphir, Reuters
The United States and the European Union agreed on Sunday to a trade framework setting a 15% tariff on most goods, staving off at least for now far higher import duties on both sides that might have sent shock waves through economies around the globe.The sweeping announcement came after President Donald Trump and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen met briefly at Trump’s Turnberry golf course in Scotland. Their private sit-down culminated months of bargaining, with the White House deadline Friday nearing for imposing punishing tariffs on the EU’s 27 member countries.“It was a very interesting negotiation. I think it’s going to be great for both parties,” Trump said. The agreement, he said, was “a good deal for everybody” and “a giant deal with lots of countries.”Von der Leyen said the deal “will bring stability, it will bring predictability, that’s very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.”
Many facets will require more work
As with other, recent tariff agreements that Trump announced with countries including Japan and the United Kingdom, some major details remain pending in this one.Trump said the EU had agreed to buy some $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest $600 billion more than it already is in America as well as make a major military equipment purchase. He said tariffs “for automobiles and everything else will be a straight across tariff of 15%” and meant that U.S. exporters “have the opening up of all of the European countries.”Von der Leyen said the 15% tariffs were “across the board, all inclusive” and that “indeed, basically the European market is open.”At a later news conference away from Turnberry, she said the $750 billion in additional U.S. energy purchases was actually over the next three years and would help ease the dependence on natural gas from Russia among the bloc’s countries.“When the European Union and the United States work together as partners, the benefits are tangible,” Von der Leyen said, noting that the agreement “stabilized on a single, 15% tariff rate for the vast majority of EU exports” including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.“15% is a clear ceiling,” she said.But von der Leyen also clarified that such a rate wouldn’t apply to everything, saying that both sides agreed on “zero for zero tariffs on a number of strategic products,” like all aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials.It is unclear if alcohol will be included in that list.“And we will keep working to add more products to this list,” she said, while also stressing that the “framework means the figures we have just explained to the public, but, of course, details have to be sorted out. And that will happen over the next weeks.”
Further EU approval needed
In the meantime, there will be work to do on other fronts. Von der Leyen had a mandate to negotiate because the European Commission handles trade for member countries. But the Commission must now present the deal to member states and EU lawmakers, who will ultimately decide whether or not to approve it.Before their meeting began, Trump pledged to change what he characterized as “a very one-sided transaction, very unfair to the United States.”“I think both sides want to see fairness,” the Republican president told reporters.Von der Leyen said the U.S. and EU combined have the world’s largest trade volume, encompassing hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars and added that Trump was “known as a tough negotiator and dealmaker.”“But fair,” Trump said.Trump has spent months threatening most of the world with large tariffs in hopes of shrinking major U.S. trade deficits with many key trading partners. More recently, he had hinted that any deal with the EU would have to “buy down” a tariff rate of 30% that had been set to take effect.But during his comments before the agreement was announced, the president was asked if he’d be willing to accept tariff rates lower than 15%, and he said “no.”
First golf, then trade talk
Their meeting came after Trump played golf for the second straight day at Turnberry, this time with a group that included sons Eric and Donald Jr. In addition to negotiating deals, Trump’s five-day visit to Scotland is built around golf and promoting properties bearing his name.A small group of demonstrators at the course waved American flags and raised a sign criticizing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who plans his own Turnberry meeting with Trump on Monday.Other voices could be heard cheering and chanting “Trump! Trump!” as he played nearby.On Tuesday, Trump will be in Aberdeen, in northeastern Scotland, where his family has another golf course and is opening a third next month. The president and his sons plan to help cut the ribbon on the new course.The U.S. and EU seemed close to a deal earlier this month, but Trump instead threatened the 30% tariff rate. The deadline for the Trump administration to begin imposing tariffs has shifted in recent weeks but is now firm and coming Friday, the administration insists.“No extensions, no more grace periods. Aug. 1, the tariffs are set, they’ll go into place, Customs will start collecting the money and off we go,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told “Fox News Sunday” before the EU deal was announced. He added, however, that even after that “people can still talk to President Trump. I mean, he’s always willing to listen.”Without an agreement, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.If Trump eventually followed through on his threat of tariffs against Europe, meanwhile, it could have made everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals more expensive in the United States.“I think it’s great that we made a deal today, instead of playing games and maybe not making a deal at all,” Trump said. “I think it’s the biggest deal ever made.”
Associated Press writers Seung Min Kim in Cincinnati and Samuel Petrequin in London contributed to this report.
Will Weissert, Associated Press
Union members who assemble Boeing’s fighter jets in the St. Louis area have “overwhelmingly voted” to reject the company’s contract offer on Sunday, with the company now preparing for an imminent strike.
Boeing’s proposal, which was sent on Tuesday to more than 3,200 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District 837, included a 20% general wage increase over four years and a $5,000 ratification bonus, as well as more vacation time and sick leave.
“The proposal from Boeing Defense fell short of addressing the priorities and sacrifices of the skilled IAM Union workforce,” the IAM union said.
Dan Gillian, Boeing’s Air Dominance vice president, general manager and senior St. Louis Site executive said in an emailed statement that it is disappointed Boeing employees voted down “the richest contract offer we’ve ever presented to IAM 837 which addressed all their stated priorities.”
“We’ve activated our contingency plan and are focused on preparing for a strike. No talks are scheduled with the union,” Gillian added.
The current contract expires on Sunday following which there is a seven-day cooling off period before a strike would begin, the union added.
Boeing’s defense division is expanding manufacturing facilities in the St. Louis area for the new U.S. Air Force fighter, the F-47, after it won the contract earlier this year.
The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter jet program, initially conceived as a “family of systems” centered around a sixth-generation fighter jet, is meant to replace the F-22 Raptor.
Rishabh Jaiswal and Angela Christy, Reuters
